Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Over the long haul process dominates outcome!

"But investors often make the critical mistake of assuming that good outcomes are the result of a good process and that bad outcomes imply a bad process. In contrast, the best long-term performers in any probabilistic field—such as investing, sports-team management, and pari-mutuel betting—all emphasize process over outcome.
Jay Russo and Paul Schoemaker illustrate the process-versus-outcome message with a simple two-by-two matrix. Their point is that because of probabilities, good decisions will sometimes lead to bad outcomes, and bad decisions will sometimes lead to good outcomes. Over the long haul, however, process dominates outcome. That’s why a casino—“the house”—makes money over time. "
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