In continuation of ACM research report (Aug 20, 2010) on Agritech (AGL) acquisition by FFC, we had informed that the matter was under consideration of the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP). As per the news reports, the CCP has confirmed that they have issued conditional NOC to the FFC to acquire 79.80% (313m shares) stake in AGL. We believe that the bid price of PRs26.06 per share would translate deal into US$94.85m worth. After AGL acquisition the FFC would likely to have biggest market share of 54.24% in urea business. In addition to this it could open up opportunities of new product SSP which is a phosphatic multi nutrient fertilizer with 14% – 20% of P205 contents and generally considered a cheaper substitute of DAP.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
TELE - Investment Case
Company | TELE |
Company Name | Telecard Limited |
EPS | 3.07 |
Fair Price | 21.93 |
Current Price | 2.18 |
Upside Potential | 905.90 |
Quarter | First Quarter |
Div | 0.1 |
Fair Value | 0.71 |
Upside Pot | -67.23 |
Avg | 11.37 |
Upside | 421.76 |
Div Yield | 4.59% |
Book Value | 11.48 |
OCF/S | |
P/E | 0.71 |
P/BV | 0.19 |
P/CF | #DIV/0! |
Sector | Fixed Line Telecommunication |
Let me present TELE as a stock for value (and contrarian) investors. The following are some of the points that I am basing this case on. So bear with me for a few moments and please do present your arguments against this case as this would be certainly of benefit to us all.
- EPS analysis : Last four quarters EPS is Rs 3.07. The P/E for the stock is only 0.71 (which in itself is solid ground for taking investment positions in the company's stock). If we evaluate a fair value on the basis of EPS, it comes out to be Rs 21.93 (two things to consider here, 1- I have not taken any future growth (positive or negative) into account while calculating the fair value; 2- the fair values that I present here may not be achieved in near future (or maybe never for that matter), the main point of presenting fair values is that we have a value to judge the current price against, which was Rs 2.18 on the last closing).
- Dividend : Now TELE is weak on this criteria. During the last four quarters it has paid a dividend of only Rs 0.10 to its investors. So this stock would not appeal much to dividend investors. The fair value based on dividend payout is Rs o,71 and the dividend yield of the stock is only 4.59%. So lets move onto book value evaluation.
- Book Value : The book value per share is Rs 11.48, which gives a P/BV of 0.19 (another strong case for investment in the stock.
- Now if we take averages of book value and fair price based of EPS and dividend, the value we arrive at is Rs 11.37, which gives us a healthy upside potential of421.76% to the last closing price.
(And yes TELE is in my portfolio and constitutes about 2.58% of my total stocks investment and yes I am currently buying this company's stock).
Happy investing
TELE - Investment Case
NBP - Investment Case
Company | NBP |
Company Name | National Bank Of Pakistan |
EPS | 16 |
Fair Price | 114.29 |
Current Price | 76.71 |
Upside Potential | 48.98 |
Quarter | 30-Oct-2010 |
Div | 7.5 |
Fair Value | 53.57 |
Upside Pot | -30.16 |
Avg | 85.44 |
Upside | 11.37 |
Div Yield | 9.78% |
Book Value | 88.45 |
OCF/S | |
P/E | 4.79 |
P/BV | 0.87 |
P/CF | #DIV/0! |
Sector | Banks |
Last four quarters EPS is Rs 16. If we use this to arrive at a fair value for NBP, the value obtained is Rs 114.29 which gives an upside potential of 48.98%, based on the last closing price of Rs 76.71. P/E is 4.79 which is again okay. Next, lets analyze its dividebd payouts. During the last four quarters, NBP has paid Rs 7.5 as dividend, giving a dividend yield of 9.78% and the dividend based fair value of Rs 53.57, which is below the last trading close. Next lets take a look at its book value, which is Rs 88.45, giving P/BV value of 0.87, which is good. If we combine all three we get an average price of Rs 85.44 which gives an upside potential of 11.37%. So it seems that NBP has a limited potential. To be safe I would say that it is a HOLD call, meaning that if you have NBP in your portfolio, buy more if its price goes below your average buy rate. Where (how high or how low) the price will go is (and cannot be) known. What result NBP will announce is also not known (and neither should a value investor try to predict it). NBP constitutes 0.23% of my portfolio (bought between Rs 66.5 - 66.75). I am currently not buying this stock.
Happy investing!
NBP - Investment Case
Sunday, January 23, 2011
APL Attock Petroleum Ltd - Valuation
Company | APL |
Company Name | Attock Petroleum Ltd |
EPS | 64.85 |
Fair Price | 463.21 |
Current Price | 391.44 |
Upside Potential | 18.34 |
Quarter | First Quarter |
Div | 30 |
Fair Value | 214.29 |
Upside Pot | -45.26 |
Avg | 274.60 |
Upside | -29.85 |
Div Yield | 7.66% |
Book Value | 146.29 |
OCF/S | -15.38 |
P/E | 6.04 |
P/BV | 2.68 |
P/CF | -25.45 |
Sector | Oil and Gas |
Doesn't seem too lucrative an investment at current price level.
APL Attock Petroleum Ltd - Valuation
Colgate of pakistan annual reports 2005 - 2010
Years | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
Profit and Loss Statement | ||||||
Net Sales | 11,529,310 | 11,184,930 | 7,131,928 | 5,934,424 | 5,005,695 | 3,920,223 |
Cost of Sales | 7,699,401 | 8,482,756 | 5,035,128 | 4,054,746 | 3,390,485 | 2,861,841 |
Gross Profit | 3,829,909 | 2,702,174 | 2,096,800 | 1,879,678 | 1,615,210 | 1,058,382 |
Other Income | 89,644 | 53,297 | 73,909 | 61,411 | 34,702 | 8,185 |
Operating Profit | 1,775,228 | 1,194,972 | 1,040,884 | 911,406 | 782,642 | 481,617 |
Finance Cost | 11,036 | 48,867 | 19,875 | 14,801 | 13,309 | 14,526 |
Profit Before Tax | 1,764,192 | 1,146,105 | 1,021,009 | 896,605 | 769,333 | 467,091 |
Taxation | 612,553 | 396,139 | 341,716 | 291,854 | 270,478 | 164,117 |
Profit After Tax | 1,151,639 | 749,966 | 679,293 | 604,751 | 498,855 | 302,974 |
Dividend | 135.00% | 115.00% | 100.00% | 160.00% | 160.00% | 125.00% |
Bonus | 15.00% | 15.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | - |
Right | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
Paid Up Capital | 315,909 | 238,873 | 191,098 | 152,879 | 122,303 | 122,303 |
Total Equity | 3,577,146 | 2,700,211 | 2,141,544 | 1,707,110 | 1,298,956 | 951,613 |
Current Liabilities | 1,229,424 | 1,072,926 | 834,290 | 818,450 | 699,948 | 436,201 |
Long Term Liabilities | 218,280 | 167,283 | 162,490 | 124,965 | 112,587 | 149,910 |
Total Liabilities | 1,447,704 | 1,240,209 | 996,780 | 943,415 | 812,535 | 586,111 |
Current Assets | 2,877,700 | 2,705,155 | 2,138,856 | 1,750,582 | 1,337,476 | 877,981 |
Fixed & Long Term Assets | 1,928,870 | 1,235,265 | 999,468 | 899,943 | 774,015 | 659,743 |
Total Assets | 4,806,570 | 3,940,420 | 3,138,324 | 2,650,525 | 2,111,491 | 1,537,724 |
Investments | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Total Capital Employed | 3,795,426 | 2,867,494 | 2,304,034 | 1,832,075 | 1,411,543 | 1,101,523 |
Colgate of pakistan annual reports 2005 - 2010
Expected Announcements for Monday, 24th January 2011
Sector | Ticker | Company | Board | Period |
Meeting | ||||
Equity Investment Instruments | MBF | Meezan Bal.Fund | 1/24/2011 | HY11 |
Oil and Gas | PPL | Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. | 1/24/2011 | HY11 |
Industrial Engineering | HINO | HinoPak Motors Ltd. | 1/24/2011 | 3Q11 |
General Industrials | SIEM | Siemens Pakistan Engineering Co. Ltd. | 1/23/2011 | 1Q11 |
Household Goods | HUSI | Hussain Industries Limited . | 1/22/2011 | 1Q11 |
Expected Announcements for Monday, 24th January 2011
Board Meetings
Sector | Ticker | Company | Board | Period | EPS | Dividends | Book Closure | |||||||
Meeting | Cash | Bonus | Right | |||||||||||
% | % | % | Price | Discout | Premium | xDate | From | To | ||||||
Electricity | KAPCO | Kot Addu Power | 2/16/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Pharma and Bio Tech | OTSU | Otsuka Pakistan Limited. | 2/15/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Chemicals | CPL | Clariant Pakistan Limited | 1/31/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Oil and Gas | APL | Attock Petroleum Ltd | 1/28/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Oil and Gas | POL | Pakistan Oilfields Ltd. | 1/28/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Oil and Gas | NRL | National Refinery Ltd. | 1/27/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Oil and Gas | ATRL | Attock Refinery Ltd. | 1/27/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Automobile and Parts | ATLH | Atlas Honda Limited | 1/25/2011 | 3Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | KOHS | Kohinoor Sugar Mills Ltd. | 1/25/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | MFFL | Mitchell's Fruit Farms Limited | 1/25/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | MIRKS | Mirpurkhas Sugar Mills Ltd. | 1/25/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Chemicals | FFBL | Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim | 1/25/2011 | CY10 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Fixed Line Telecommunication | WTL | WorldCall Telecom | 1/25/2011 | CY10 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Equity Investment Instruments | MBF | Meezan Bal.Fund | 1/24/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Oil and Gas | PPL | Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. | 1/24/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Industrial Engineering | HINO | HinoPak Motors Ltd. | 1/24/2011 | 3Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
General Industrials | SIEM | Siemens Pakistan Engineering Co. Ltd. | 1/23/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Household Goods | HUSI | Hussain Industries Limited . | 1/22/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Personal Goods | LATM | Latif Jute Mills Ltd. | 1/20/2011 | HY11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | PNGRS | Pangrio Sugar Mills Ltd. | 1/19/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | MZSM | Mirza Sugar Mills Limited. | 1/19/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Construction and Materials | DNCC | Dandot Cement Company Ltd. | 1/19/2011 | 1Q11 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Oil and Gas | BYCO | Byco Petroleum Limited | 1/17/2011 | 1Q11 | -1.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Household Goods | HUSI | Hussain Industries Limited . | 1/15/2011 | FY10 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Personal Goods | SHCM | Shadman Cotton Mills Ltd. | 1/15/2011 | FY10 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | QUICE | Quice Food Ltd. | 01/12/2011 | FY10 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Personal Goods | NATM | Nadeem Textile Mills Limited | 01/11/2011 | 1Q11 | 15.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | AGSML | Abdullah Shah Ghazi Sugar Mills Limited | 01/10/2011 | FY10 | 0.53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Media | MDTL | Media Times Ltd | 01/10/2011 | - | - | 0 | 0 | 33.33 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/24/2011 | 1/31/2011 |
Food Producers | TSML | Tandlianwala Sugar Mills Limited | 01/10/2011 | FY10 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | BAWS | Bawany Sugar Mills Ltd. | 01/08/2011 | FY10 | -15.28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Construction and Materials | DNCC | Dandot Cement Company Ltd. | 01/08/2011 | FY10 | -4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | CSUML | Colony Sugar Mills | 01/07/2011 | FY10 | 1.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | SKRS | Sakrand Sugar Mills Ltd. | 01/07/2011 | FY10 | 2.08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | SGML | Shakerganj Mills Ltd. | 01/06/2011 | FY10 | -12.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | PMRS | Premier Sugar Mills and Distillery Co. | 01/06/2011 | FY10 | 10.27 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/20/2011 | 1/21/2011 | 1/30/2011 |
Food Producers | MFFL | Mitchell's Fruit Farms Limited | 01/06/2011 | FY10 | 9.22 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/24/2011 | 1/31/2011 |
Food Producers | CHAS | Chashma Sugar Mills Limited. | 01/06/2011 | FY10 | 9.89 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/20/2011 | 1/21/2011 | 1/30/2011 |
Food Producers | CSMD | Crescent Sugar Mills and Distillery Ltd. | 01/06/2011 | FY10 | -2.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | NONS | Noon Sugar Mills Ltd. | 01/06/2011 | FY10 | -12.14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | DWSM | Dewan Sugar Mills ltd. | 01/05/2011 | FY10 | -2.29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | BAFS | Baba Farid Sugar Mills Limited | 01/04/2011 | FY10 | -33.73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | HUSS | Hussein Sugar Mills ltd. | 01/04/2011 | FY10 | -14.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/28/2011 | 1/29/2011 | 02/04/2011 |
Food Producers | HWQS | Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Limited | 01/03/2011 | FY10 | 1.41 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/17/2011 | 1/18/2011 | 1/25/2011 |
Food Producers | JDWS | J. D. W. Sugar Mills Ltd. | 01/03/2011 | FY10 | 28.49 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/24/2011 | 1/31/2011 |
Food Producers | AABS | AL- Abbas Sugar Mills Limited. | 01/03/2011 | FY10 | 11.8 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/24/2011 | 1/31/2011 |
Food Producers | SANSM | Sanghar Sugar Mills Ltd. | 01/03/2011 | FY10 | 11.25 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/18/2011 | 1/19/2011 | 1/31/2011 |
Food Producers | SHSML | Shahmurad Sugar Mills Ltd. | 12/30/2010 | FY10 | 1.53 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/22/2011 | 02/02/2011 |
Food Producers | ALNRS | Al-Noor Sugar Mills Ltd. | 12/30/2010 | FY10 | 13.7 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/22/2011 | 02/02/2011 |
Food Producers | FRSM | Faran Sugar Mills Ltd. | 12/30/2010 | FY10 | 4.98 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/23/2011 | 1/30/2011 |
Food Producers | KPUS | Khairpur Sugar Mills Limited | 12/29/2010 | FY10 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | SHJS | Shahtaj Sugar Mills Ltd. | 12/29/2010 | FY10 | -5.77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | TICL | Thal Industries Corporation Ltd. | 12/28/2010 | FY10 | 7.93 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/21/2011 | 1/22/2011 | 1/28/2011 |
Food Producers | KOHS | Kohinoor Sugar Mills Ltd. | 12/28/2010 | FY10 | -6.78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | FECS | Fecto Sugar Mills Ltd. | 12/28/2010 | FY10 | -18.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Food Producers | SASML | Sind Abadgar Mills Ltd. | 12/27/2010 | FY10 | 2.08 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1/18/2011 | 1/19/2011 | 1/28/2011 |
Board Meetings
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