Thursday, January 27, 2011

Fertilizer Sector: Acquisition on cards as FFC gets green signal to acquire Agritech business…

In continuation of ACM research report (Aug 20, 2010) on Agritech (AGL) acquisition by FFC, we had informed that the matter was under consideration of the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP). As per the news reports, the CCP has confirmed that they have issued conditional NOC to the FFC to acquire 79.80% (313m shares) stake in AGL. We believe that the bid price of PRs26.06 per share would translate deal into US$94.85m worth. After AGL acquisition the FFC would likely to have biggest market share of 54.24% in urea business. In addition to this it could open up opportunities of new product SSP which is a phosphatic multi nutrient fertilizer with 14% – 20% of P205 contents and generally considered a cheaper substitute of DAP.

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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

TELE - Investment Case


Company TELE
Company Name Telecard Limited                        
EPS 3.07
Fair Price 21.93
Current Price 2.18
Upside Potential 905.90
Quarter First Quarter
Div 0.1
Fair Value 0.71
Upside Pot -67.23
Avg 11.37
Upside 421.76
Div Yield 4.59%
Book Value 11.48
OCF/S
P/E 0.71
P/BV 0.19
P/CF #DIV/0!
Sector Fixed Line Telecommunication

Let me present TELE as a stock for value (and contrarian) investors. The following are some of the points that I am basing this case on. So bear with me for a few moments and please do present your arguments against this case as this would be certainly of benefit to us all.
  • EPS analysis : Last four quarters EPS is Rs 3.07. The P/E for the stock is only 0.71 (which in itself is solid ground for taking investment positions in the company's stock). If we evaluate a fair value on the basis of EPS, it comes out to be Rs 21.93 (two things to consider here, 1- I have not taken any future growth (positive or negative) into account while calculating the fair value; 2- the fair values that I present here may not be achieved in near future (or maybe never for that matter), the main point of presenting fair values is that we have a value to judge the current price against, which was Rs 2.18 on the last closing).
  • Dividend : Now TELE is weak on this criteria. During the last four quarters it has paid a dividend of only Rs 0.10 to its investors. So this stock would not appeal much to dividend investors. The fair value based on dividend payout is Rs o,71 and the dividend yield of the stock is only 4.59%. So lets move onto book value evaluation.
  • Book Value : The book value per share is Rs 11.48, which gives a P/BV of 0.19 (another strong case for investment in the stock.
  • Now if we take averages of book value and fair price based of EPS and dividend, the value we arrive at is Rs 11.37, which gives us a healthy upside potential of421.76% to the last closing price.
So in my opinion this stock should be in every value investors portfolio. When will the investment turn profitable, I simply don't know. Can this investment turn into a loss, yes it possibly can. But keep in mind that at Rs 2.18 per share, TELE is saliva dripping cheap relative to its latest financial (and will remain so until it shows major losses). So for long time investors its a Rico-Dig.

(And yes TELE is in my portfolio and constitutes about 2.58% of my total stocks investment and yes I am currently buying this company's stock).

Happy investing


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NBP - Investment Case


Company NBP
Company Name National Bank Of Pakistan
EPS 16
Fair Price 114.29
Current Price 76.71
Upside Potential 48.98
Quarter 30-Oct-2010
Div 7.5
Fair Value 53.57
Upside Pot -30.16
Avg 85.44
Upside 11.37
Div Yield 9.78%
Book Value 88.45
OCF/S
P/E 4.79
P/BV 0.87
P/CF #DIV/0!
Sector Banks

Last four quarters EPS is Rs 16. If we use this to arrive at a fair value for NBP, the value obtained is Rs 114.29 which gives an upside potential of 48.98%, based on the last closing price of Rs 76.71. P/E is 4.79 which is again okay. Next, lets analyze its dividebd payouts. During the last four quarters, NBP has paid Rs 7.5 as dividend, giving a dividend yield of 9.78% and the dividend based fair value of Rs 53.57, which is below the last trading close. Next lets take a look at its book value, which is Rs 88.45, giving P/BV value of 0.87, which is good. If we combine all three we get an average price of Rs 85.44 which gives an upside potential of 11.37%. So it seems that NBP has a limited potential. To be safe I would say that it is a HOLD call, meaning that if you have NBP in your portfolio, buy more if its price goes below your average buy rate. Where (how high or how low) the price will go is (and cannot be) known. What result NBP will announce is also not known (and neither should a value investor try to predict it). NBP constitutes 0.23% of my portfolio (bought between Rs 66.5 - 66.75). I am currently not buying this stock.

Happy investing!


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Sunday, January 23, 2011

APL Attock Petroleum Ltd - Valuation

Company APL
Company Name Attock Petroleum Ltd
EPS 64.85
Fair Price 463.21
Current Price 391.44
Upside Potential 18.34
Quarter First Quarter
Div 30
Fair Value 214.29
Upside Pot -45.26
Avg 274.60
Upside -29.85
Div Yield 7.66%
Book Value 146.29
OCF/S -15.38
P/E 6.04
P/BV 2.68
P/CF -25.45
Sector Oil and Gas

Doesn't seem too lucrative an investment at current price level.



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Colgate of pakistan annual reports 2005 - 2010

Years 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
   Profit and Loss Statement





           Net Sales 11,529,310 11,184,930 7,131,928 5,934,424 5,005,695 3,920,223
           Cost of Sales 7,699,401 8,482,756 5,035,128 4,054,746 3,390,485 2,861,841
           Gross Profit 3,829,909 2,702,174 2,096,800 1,879,678 1,615,210 1,058,382
           Other Income 89,644 53,297 73,909 61,411 34,702 8,185
           Operating Profit 1,775,228 1,194,972 1,040,884 911,406 782,642 481,617
           Finance Cost 11,036 48,867 19,875 14,801 13,309 14,526
           Profit Before Tax 1,764,192 1,146,105 1,021,009 896,605 769,333 467,091
           Taxation 612,553 396,139 341,716 291,854 270,478 164,117
           Profit After Tax 1,151,639 749,966 679,293 604,751 498,855 302,974
           Dividend 135.00% 115.00% 100.00% 160.00% 160.00% 125.00%
           Bonus 15.00% 15.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%   -  
           Right   -     -     -     -     -     -  
   Balance Sheet





           Paid Up Capital 315,909 238,873 191,098 152,879 122,303 122,303
           Total Equity 3,577,146 2,700,211 2,141,544 1,707,110 1,298,956 951,613
           Current Liabilities 1,229,424 1,072,926 834,290 818,450 699,948 436,201
           Long Term Liabilities 218,280 167,283 162,490 124,965 112,587 149,910
           Total Liabilities 1,447,704 1,240,209 996,780 943,415 812,535 586,111
           Current Assets 2,877,700 2,705,155 2,138,856 1,750,582 1,337,476 877,981
           Fixed & Long Term Assets 1,928,870 1,235,265 999,468 899,943 774,015 659,743
           Total Assets 4,806,570 3,940,420 3,138,324 2,650,525 2,111,491 1,537,724
           Investments   -     -     -     -     -     -  
           Total Capital Employed 3,795,426 2,867,494 2,304,034 1,832,075 1,411,543 1,101,523

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Expected Announcements for Monday, 24th January 2011

Sector Ticker Company Board Period



Meeting
Equity Investment Instruments MBF Meezan Bal.Fund 1/24/2011 HY11
Oil and Gas PPL Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. 1/24/2011 HY11
Industrial Engineering HINO HinoPak Motors Ltd. 1/24/2011 3Q11
General Industrials SIEM Siemens Pakistan Engineering Co. Ltd. 1/23/2011 1Q11
Household Goods HUSI Hussain Industries Limited . 1/22/2011 1Q11

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Board Meetings

Sector Ticker Company Board Period EPS Dividends





Book Closure



Meeting

Cash Bonus Right











% % % Price Discout Premium xDate From To
Electricity KAPCO Kot Addu Power 2/16/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Pharma and Bio Tech OTSU Otsuka Pakistan Limited. 2/15/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Chemicals CPL Clariant Pakistan Limited 1/31/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Oil and Gas APL Attock Petroleum Ltd 1/28/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Oil and Gas POL Pakistan Oilfields Ltd. 1/28/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Oil and Gas NRL National Refinery Ltd. 1/27/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Oil and Gas ATRL Attock Refinery Ltd. 1/27/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Automobile and Parts ATLH Atlas Honda Limited 1/25/2011 3Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers KOHS Kohinoor Sugar Mills Ltd. 1/25/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers MFFL Mitchell's Fruit Farms Limited 1/25/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers MIRKS Mirpurkhas Sugar Mills Ltd. 1/25/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Chemicals FFBL Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim 1/25/2011 CY10 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Fixed Line Telecommunication WTL WorldCall Telecom 1/25/2011 CY10 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Equity Investment Instruments MBF Meezan Bal.Fund 1/24/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Oil and Gas PPL Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. 1/24/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Industrial Engineering HINO HinoPak Motors Ltd. 1/24/2011 3Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


General Industrials SIEM Siemens Pakistan Engineering Co. Ltd. 1/23/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Household Goods HUSI Hussain Industries Limited . 1/22/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Personal Goods LATM Latif Jute Mills Ltd. 1/20/2011 HY11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers PNGRS Pangrio Sugar Mills Ltd. 1/19/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers MZSM Mirza Sugar Mills Limited. 1/19/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Construction and Materials DNCC Dandot Cement Company Ltd. 1/19/2011 1Q11 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Oil and Gas BYCO Byco Petroleum Limited 1/17/2011 1Q11 -1.74 0 0 0 0 0 0


Household Goods HUSI Hussain Industries Limited . 1/15/2011 FY10 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Personal Goods SHCM Shadman Cotton Mills Ltd. 1/15/2011 FY10 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers QUICE Quice Food Ltd. 01/12/2011 FY10 0.44 0 0 0 0 0 0


Personal Goods NATM Nadeem Textile Mills Limited 01/11/2011 1Q11 15.18 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers AGSML Abdullah Shah Ghazi Sugar Mills Limited 01/10/2011 FY10 0.53 0 0 0 0 0 0


Media MDTL Media Times Ltd 01/10/2011 - - 0 0 33.33 10 0 0 1/21/2011 1/24/2011 1/31/2011
Food Producers TSML Tandlianwala Sugar Mills Limited 01/10/2011 FY10 - 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers BAWS Bawany Sugar Mills Ltd. 01/08/2011 FY10 -15.28 0 0 0 0 0 0


Construction and Materials DNCC Dandot Cement Company Ltd. 01/08/2011 FY10 -4.6 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers CSUML Colony Sugar Mills 01/07/2011 FY10 1.19 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers SKRS Sakrand Sugar Mills Ltd. 01/07/2011 FY10 2.08 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers SGML Shakerganj Mills Ltd. 01/06/2011 FY10 -12.65 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers PMRS Premier Sugar Mills and Distillery Co. 01/06/2011 FY10 10.27 10 0 0 0 0 0 1/20/2011 1/21/2011 1/30/2011
Food Producers MFFL Mitchell's Fruit Farms Limited 01/06/2011 FY10 9.22 40 0 0 0 0 0 1/21/2011 1/24/2011 1/31/2011
Food Producers CHAS Chashma Sugar Mills Limited. 01/06/2011 FY10 9.89 10 0 0 0 0 0 1/20/2011 1/21/2011 1/30/2011
Food Producers CSMD Crescent Sugar Mills and Distillery Ltd. 01/06/2011 FY10 -2.62 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers NONS Noon Sugar Mills Ltd. 01/06/2011 FY10 -12.14 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers DWSM Dewan Sugar Mills ltd. 01/05/2011 FY10 -2.29 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers BAFS Baba Farid Sugar Mills Limited 01/04/2011 FY10 -33.73 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers HUSS Hussein Sugar Mills ltd. 01/04/2011 FY10 -14.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 1/28/2011 1/29/2011 02/04/2011
Food Producers HWQS Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Limited 01/03/2011 FY10 1.41 10 0 0 0 0 0 1/17/2011 1/18/2011 1/25/2011
Food Producers JDWS J. D. W. Sugar Mills Ltd. 01/03/2011 FY10 28.49 70 10 0 0 0 0 1/21/2011 1/24/2011 1/31/2011
Food Producers AABS AL- Abbas Sugar Mills Limited. 01/03/2011 FY10 11.8 50 0 0 0 0 0 1/21/2011 1/24/2011 1/31/2011
Food Producers SANSM Sanghar Sugar Mills Ltd. 01/03/2011 FY10 11.25 15 0 0 0 0 0 1/18/2011 1/19/2011 1/31/2011
Food Producers SHSML Shahmurad Sugar Mills Ltd. 12/30/2010 FY10 1.53 10 0 0 0 0 0 1/21/2011 1/22/2011 02/02/2011
Food Producers ALNRS Al-Noor Sugar Mills Ltd. 12/30/2010 FY10 13.7 50 0 0 0 0 0 1/21/2011 1/22/2011 02/02/2011
Food Producers FRSM Faran Sugar Mills Ltd. 12/30/2010 FY10 4.98 25 0 0 0 0 0 1/21/2011 1/23/2011 1/30/2011
Food Producers KPUS Khairpur Sugar Mills Limited 12/29/2010 FY10 0.95 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers SHJS Shahtaj Sugar Mills Ltd. 12/29/2010 FY10 -5.77 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers TICL Thal Industries Corporation Ltd. 12/28/2010 FY10 7.93 15 0 0 0 0 0 1/21/2011 1/22/2011 1/28/2011
Food Producers KOHS Kohinoor Sugar Mills Ltd. 12/28/2010 FY10 -6.78 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers FECS Fecto Sugar Mills Ltd. 12/28/2010 FY10 -18.45 0 0 0 0 0 0


Food Producers SASML Sind Abadgar Mills Ltd. 12/27/2010 FY10 2.08 10 0 0 0 0 0 1/18/2011 1/19/2011 1/28/2011

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