Friday, July 13, 2012

FFBL reports 82% YoY decline in bottom line for 1HCY12


 
          Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) reported PAT of PKR644mn (EPS: PKR0.69) for 1HCY12, down by 82% YoY
 
          For 2QCY12, the company reported PAT of PKR1,030mn (EPS: PKR1.10), representing YoY decline of 47%
 
          Against expectations, the company did not declare any interim dividend
 
          For 2QCY12, FFBL’s revenue declined by 6% YoY to PKR9,357mn due to lower offtake. FFBL sold ~135k tons of urea and ~85k tons of DAP in 2QCY12, lower by 6% and 17% respectively on YoY basis
 
          2QCY12 gross margins for the company clocked in 1300 bps lower YoY to ~29% due to cess imposed on feed and fuel gas usage from the beginning of CY12
 
          The result was below our expectations on account of reported PKR123mn loss from JV. We maintain our BUY stance on the scrip, currently trading at CY12E PER of 7.0x and presenting 12% dividend yield

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FFBL: 1H2012 EPS stood at Rs0.69, down 82%YoY


 
(1H2012, EPS=Rs0.69, Payout=Nil)
 
July 13, 2012 ( JS Research )
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) has announced a result for 1H2012. The company has reported a PAT of Rs644mn (EPS: Rs0.69) compared to PAT of Rs3,514mn (EPS: Rs3.76) in the same period last year. In 2Q alone, the earnings are reported at Rs1,031mn (EPS: Rs1.10), down 47%YoY. FFBL has not announced any interim cash dividend that is against the market consensus expectations.
 
The demand was revived in the later part of 2Q on the back of the price cut strategy and expectations of higher urea prices going forward. Hence, offtake figures have shown some respectability in 2Q. However, to meet the running finance requirements of the company, the finance cost has risen to Rs604mn, up 127%YoY. FFBL is currently trading at a 2012E PE of 6.3x and offers a dividend yield of 13.8%. We have a ‘Buy’ call on the stock with the target price of Rs49.
 

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FCCL: Moving up the ladder!


 
July 13, 2012 (JS Research)
 

 
 
3Q results propel 9M earnings
Enhancement of capacity by 2.24mn tons annually allowed the company to record higher volumetric sales in 3Q. This along with 31%YoY jump in average retention prices in 3Q augmented the top-line of the company by 177%YoY. Ascending cement prices allowed the company to register a higher gross margin of 29% compared to 13% in the same period last year. Financial charges surged by 38.1 times due to amortization of the capitalized cost associated with the expansion.
 
 
Thus, overall earnings in 3Q were shed away somewhat due to higher financial charges, nonetheless, the company still managed to report an earnings growth of 4.67x to Rs243mn (EPS: Rs0.18). Cumulatively in 9MFY12 though, the PAT was down by 54%YoY to Rs140mn (EPS: Rs0.11).
 
Earnings Revision
After the adjustments linked to higher cement prices and dip in coal prices, we have changed our earnings estimates for FCCL. Our FY12E-FY14F earnings are raised by 5-10%.
 
 
Fauji cement enters the big boys club!
FCCL initially had only one production line with a capacity of 1.16mn tons annually but after the recent capacity expansion the company added another production line with a capacity of 2.24mn tons annually. Therefore, now the company’s overall installed capacity stands at 3.4mn tons annually, making it the fourth largest cement producer in the country. Furthermore, the company is ideally placed to cash in on the additional demand expected from the construction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. With the distance of approximately 800km from the Dam site, the company is among those who enjoy the closest proximity.
 
 
Recommendation: ‘Buy’
Resolute cement prices are critical for the company to maintain its growth momentum. The pricing power remained firm throughout the year and the industry still seems adamant to keep prices at these relatively ‘lofty’ levels. Thus, we have a ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stock as it offers an upside of 22.6% to our target price of Rs7.1. At current levels the stock is trading at an FY13F EV/EBITDA of 5.4x versus the regional average of 9.5x. The key risk to our investment thesis remains any unforeseen adjustments to cement prices.
 
92 (21) 111-574-111 (ext. 3103)
 

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Intra-day short selling will be allowed: KSE, SECP officials meet | Business Recorder

Intra-day short selling will be allowed: KSE, SECP officials meet | Business Recorder

In a move to boost trading activities at the local bourse, some key decisions were taken at a meeting between top officials of Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE).

The meeting was held at KSE here on Thursday. The SECP team led by its Chairman Muhammad Ali met the KSE board of directors and senior members. Chairman KSE Munir Kamal, Managing Director Nadeem Naqvi, all directors, senior members including Arif Habib, Aqeel Karim Dhedhi, Feroz Kassem and others attended the meeting.

During the seven hour long meeting, the issue of continuously declining trading activities at the local bourse was discussed in details. The number one item of the agenda of the meeting was "Why are market volumes still dry: How to revive MTS and how to ensure a successful SLB product?"

Sources told Business Recorder that the meeting took some key decisions to boost trading activities at the local bourse and it was decided in principle that intra-day short selling would be allowed and future roll over window would be provided. The roll-over of futures will be allowed by paying the cost of fund. Presently, it has to be roll over by buying and selling of futures.

It was also decided that shares which are restricted in MTS financing will also be available for pledging purpose.

The meeting also decided that a system will be in place to discourage in-house financing at the local bourse.

It was also decided that there would be no exposure margin from brokers for shares worth Rs 50 million.

The meeting also discussed and deliberated all matters of mutual interest for the development of capital market and some market related pending issues.

The meeting discussed the most important issue of declining trading volumes at the bourse. It was also discussed that how to revive the margin trading system (MTS) and how to ensure a successful Securities Lending and Borrowing (SLB) product.

The function of National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited (NCCPL) as a Central Counter Party (Establishment of Settlement Guarantee Fund and Shifting of RMS) was also discussed at the meeting.

Some other matters including Development of Derivative Segment, Development of Debt Market, Establishment of a Bond Pricing Agency, Revised Regulatory Regime for Credit Rating Agency, Enhancement of per default contribution from IPF, SME Counter/Exchange and Inter Exchange Trades were also discussed at the meeting.

The meeting also discussed the matter of establishment of Securities Investor Protection Corporation, Investor protection (Trade confirmations by stock exchanges), Activation of ETFs and Options, Introduction of Islamic Products and Shariah-Compliant Investment Alternatives, Utilisation of CHPF for Intra-day Margins, strengthening of surveillance capacity of the stock exchanges and introduction of SPAN Margins, Implementation of the Investor Education Plan, Image building, Integration of Stock Exchanges/Demutualization Matters, Implementation of effective inspection plan, Broker to broker trading on the same Exchange, Back Office Software and the matter that Internet Software to be provided by KSE to its members was also discussed at the meeting.

A senior member told that the above mentioned points were just discussed and the SECP will take final decision after internal consultation.
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FFBL reports 82% YoY decline in bottom line for 1HCY12


 

          Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) reported PAT of PKR644mn (EPS: PKR0.69) for 1HCY12, down by 82% YoY

 

          For 2QCY12, the company reported PAT of PKR1,030mn (EPS: PKR1.10), representing YoY decline of 47%

 

          Against expectations, the company did not declare any interim dividend

 

          For 2QCY12, FFBL’s revenue declined by 6% YoY to PKR9,357mn due to lower offtake. FFBL sold ~135k tons of urea and ~85k tons of DAP in 2QCY12, lower by 6% and 17% respectively on YoY basis

 

          2QCY12 gross margins for the company clocked in 1300 bps lower YoY to ~29% due to cess imposed on feed and fuel gas usage from the beginning of CY12

 

          The result was below our expectations on account of reported PKR123mn loss from JV. We maintain our BUY stance on the scrip, currently trading at CY12E PER of 7.0x and presenting 12% dividend yield
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Autos: FY12 sales up 22.3%YoY


According to the numbers released by PAMA, auto industry sales have recorded a growth of 22.3%YoY in FY12 to 179k units (Cars + LCVs). In FY12, car sales were up by 23%YoY to 157k units and LCV segment registered 17.6% YoY growth to 21.8k units. Tractor sales were down by 28%YoY to 49.7k units where sales were hampered by imposition of GST. On MoM basis, June’12 emerged as the best month of sales in the last fiscal year and recorded total sales of 19,156 units, a growth of 15.3%MoM. Furthermore, sales in the 4QFY12 were up by 8.5%QoQ, where we highlight seasonality (Apr-Jun quarter has historically been the best for auto sales) as well as strong recovery in HCAR sales following normalization of production as factors driving demand.      
PSMC: Being the market leader, PSMC has posted a robust growth in sales of 40%YoY to 112,157 units in FY12 mainly supported by Mehran and Bolan with sales growth of 46%YoY and 69%YoY, respectively. The higher sales of these variants are the consequence of the Government of Punjab taxi scheme. On sequential basis the company has posted a growth of 7%MoM to 11,352 units. Sales in 4QFY12 were flattish (up by a modest 0.5%QoQ to 30.8k units).
INDU: Parallel with the industry sales, INDU has recorded sales growth of 15%MoM to 5,570 units. Hilux with the new model of ‘Vigo Champ’ has posted 2.5xMoM growth in sales to 788 units where sales of Cuore were 295 units and Corolla sales were 4,487 units. In full year FY12, the company has posted a growth of 9%YoY, driven by 12%YoY sales growth of the flagship ‘Corolla’.
HCAR: Sales of HCAR have been on the recovery path during 4QFY12 as production at the plant normalized, where production was earlier hampered by disruption in supply chain due to the floods in Thailand. In Jun’12, HCAR has posted 93%MoM growth in sales to 2,218 units. Sales of Civic and City were 533 units and 1,685 units, up 433%MoM and 60%MoM, respectively.
Tractors: Thanks to the cut in GST to 5%, the sales of tractors have rebounded strongly. Total tractor sales were recorded at 8,368 units in the month of Jun’12, up 21% sequentially, where in full year FY12 there is a decline of 28%YoY due to the GST issue. Milllat tractors (MTL) has recorded sales of ‘Massey Ferguson’ of 5,325 units and Al-Ghazi Tractors (AGTL) with the sales of ‘Fiat’ recorded at 3,043 units in Jun’12, up 28%MoM and 11%MoM respectively.
Outlook: Corresponding to the growth in remittances with a CAGR of 19%, total car sales (local + imports) in the country are growing sharply with a CAGR of 30% for last ten years, we expect the sales to grow on the same pace for next year. Last quarter has witnessed a strong growth of 8.5%QoQ in industry sales, which bodes well for the sector’s 4QFY12 earnings outlook. While the PkR depreciated by 0.4%QoQ against JPY, stable steel prices coupled with uptick in car prices should help the auto sector maintain their margins. Our preferred pick in the industry is PSMC (now the only OEM to assemble 1,000cc and below segment variants) having larger market share and the only company to cater car needs of the huge middle class population.

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EFOODS: Expecting 14% Sequential PAT Growth

 

          We expect EFOODS to post PAT growth of 383% YoY to PKR1,046mn (EPS: PKR1.39) for 1HCY12

 

          For 2QCY12, we anticipate the company to state earnings of PKR560mn (EPS: PKR0.74), representing growth of 464% YoY and 14% QoQ

 

          The outgoing quarter witnessed an addition to EFOODS’ “Omung” portfolio with the launch of “Omung Lassi”. Our market intelligence suggests favorable response to the sweet flavored version

 

          Having incorporated updated price multiples for regional food producers and the broader market index in our relative valuation models for EFOODS, our Dec12 target price for the company has been revised upward to PKR75/sh

 

          We maintain our ADD stance on the stock, with an upside potential of 7% to its TP.  The company continues to present strong long term growth prospects in Pakistan’s FMCG space, which has shown sustainable sales CAGR of above ~20% for the last 5 years
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Trading in shares of ICI Pakistan Limited will resume on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) on Friday, July 13, 2012.


 

The company had an issued share capital of Rs1.388 billion divided into 138.802 million ordinary share of Rs10 each, of which Rs923.590 million comprising of 92.359 million ordinary shares has been retained and the remaining Rs464.432 million comprising 46.443 million ordinary shares of Rs10 each has been transferred as part of the paint undertaking to AkzoNobel Pakistan Limited.

 

It has been decided that the opening price of ICI shares will be Rs131.07; the closing price of the stock before suspension of trading.
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Thursday, July 12, 2012

Auto sales up 23% in FY12


 
   

The Pakistan car industry grew by 23% to 178,753 units YoY in FY12 where PSMC contributed 60% followed by INDUS contributing 29% to the total industry sales. The increase can be attributed primarily to 1) good agricultural income 2) deferred sales due to reduction in Sales Tax and 3) Yellow cab scheme
In Jun12,car sales stood at 19,140 units, depicting an exceptional increase of 158% from 7,419 units sold in Jun11 mainly because of the low base effect as the government was expected to reduce Sales Tax by 1% in Jun11
PSMC had a phenomenal FY12 as it witnessed a 40% YoY jump in its sales figures contributing more than 50% to the industry’s total sales pie. This growth in units from 79943k to 112157k units was mainly triggered by Punjab Government Yellow cab scheme where PSMC was the prime beneficiary. INDU also saw its sales units go up to 54477 units from 50015k (9% up in FY12) on the back of good agricultural growth and subsequently good rural income
Segment wise YoY analysis makes Corolla(+58%), Cultus(+ 20%) and Mehran(+ 46%) the star performers in 1300cc, 1000cc and 800cc respectively. We believe Corolla on the back of agricultural income and Cultus and Mehran as substitutes to Alto and Cuore will continue to capture the customer interest
Going forward, phasing out of the Yellow Cab scheme coupled with discontinuation of ALTO would reduce the volumetric sales post CY12 thus suggesting a Neutral stance on PSMC whereas good agricultural output will keep INDU’s margins intact justifying our ADD stance on the company

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FFC: Spurt in 2QCY12 earnings, thanks to rebound in urea offtake!


As per industry sources, FFC registered urea offtake of ~570k tons during Jun’12, turning out to be a big beneficiary of price reduction strategy led by itself where dealers’ price arbitrage anticipation drove the volumetric sales. Resultantly, total urea offtake for 2QCY12 is expected to register at 850k tons, up by a significant 2.6xQoQ. We estimate FFC to post NPAT of PkR6.4bn (EPS: PkR5.06), up by an encouraging 66%QoQ, in 2QCY12 where DPS of PkR4.5-5.0 is expected to supplement the 2QCY12 results. In this regard, 1HFY12 NPAT is forecast to stand at PkR10.3bn (EPS: PkR8.1), up 26%YoY. At current levels, we retain ‘Buy’ recommendation on FFC with Dec’12 TP of PkR144/share, implying a 23% upside.
2QCY12 to post superb earnings amidst urea price cut: We expect FFC to post an NPAT of PkR6.4bn (EPS: PkR5.06) in 2QCY12, up 66%QoQ, on the back of a spurt in urea offtake, estimated at ~850k tons compared with just 329k tons last quarter. As a result, we expect FFC to have nearly completely liquidated its urea inventory at 2QCY12 end. Gross margin for 2QCY12 is expected to dip by 1.4ppt QoQ due to decline in urea price. Financial charges are also forecast to remain a tad higher (+9%QoQ) due to the inventory pile up during most of the quarter (urea sales skewed towards the end of the quarter). Lower other income at PkR437mn (- 80%QoQ), is expected to drag a superb quarter’s earnings as FFBL did not announce dividend in last quarter. NPAT for 1HFY12 is expected at PKR10.3bn, up by a significant 26%YoY. Given the unchanged urea offtake over corresponding period (up by a modest 0.4%YoY), primary driver of sequential improvement in earnings is higher urea prices in 1HFY12 compared to 1HFY11; however, gross margin is expected to contract by 7.1pptYoY due to higher gas prices, specifically feedstock (GIDC imposition).
Investment Perspective: FFC is trading at attractive CY12and CY13 dividend yields of 13.5% and 16.7%, respectively, under our base case scenario which assumes 125k tons closing inventory at CY12 end. Key upside could come in the form of ENGRO initiated urea price hike, where ENGRO may contemplate a urea price hike given the cash flow constraints arising from Enven plant closure and the debt repayments. Currently, we retain our liking for FFC (trading at CY12F and CY13F P/E multiples of 7.3x and 6.0x), while the scrip offers an upside of 23% to our Dec-end TP of PkR144/share.

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NPL: Awaiting Triggers

 

          Protection from macroeconomic shocks, improvement in dividend payouts and hefty efficiency gains in initial years builds our investment outlook for NPL

 

          The indexation of various tariff indicators to USD/PKR rate shields the company from adverse local currency movements. we expect PKR to depreciate at an average 5% against USD throughout the project life, thereby strengthening the company’s bottom-line

 

          The plant can save upto 4-5 gms of fuel per unit generated in its initial years which effectively translates into FY13EPS impact of PKR0.76/sh 

 

          The O&M expenses for a new plant are less than estimated which will let NPL save almost PKR 300mn in FY13

 

          We expect the cash position of the company to improve as 1)Involvement of Supreme Court to resolve the inter-industry debt issue 2) FY13 being the election year will force the government to release funds and take some steps to ease the power outages. Resultantly NPL will be able to pay a dividend of PKR2/sh for FY12 increasing its payout ratio to 37%, we anticipate

 

          Circular debt continues to nag the entire energy chain and NPL is no exception. We don’t see any structural long-term resolution to this problem in the near future but a strong possibility of releasing funds to IPPs in FY13 to settle the power outcry countrywide seems evident

 

          The scrip is available at a Jun’13 TP of PKR 16.25 using the dividend discount model providing an upside of 8.4% from current levels and a dividend yield of 13.3% taking the total returns to 22.7% - BUY !
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