Saturday, May 29, 2010

Graham on stock performance forecasting

The heart of Graham's argument is that the intelligent investor must
never forecast the future exclusively by extrapolating the past.
Share/Bookmark

ANL selling its entire stake of Agritech

According to a notice sent by Azgard Nine to Karachi Stock Exchange, the
Company has decided to disinvest its 100% shareholding of around 313 mn
shares (78.79% of total paid up capital) ordinary shares in Agritech
(formerly Pak American Fertilizer) to support the
reprofiling/restructuring of the debt. The names coming up as potential
buying parties are Arif Habib Group, Fauji Fertilizer and Nishat Group.
ANL is a composite textile unit involved in production of denim products
and around 85% of the revenue is generated through exports. Recently as
the price of yarn shot up drastically, due to which the company faced a
hit on gross margins and accompanied by heavy financial charges resulted
in a loss of PkR 0.15 per share in the bottom line for the 1QFY10. The
main purpose of the company to offload Agritech is to generate fund to
restructure its debt. ANL holds debt of PkR 15.25 bn and debt to equity
ratio of 45:55. In March 2010, ANL offered some of its stake in
Agritech to general public at a price of PkR 30.0. However, this time
the offer price is not yet known. In case ANL manages to sell the
remaining entire stake at a price of PkR 30.0 per share; it would be
able to raise funds amounting to PkR 9.4 bn from which after retiring
the debt would result in improvement of stand alone after tax earnings
by PkR 1.88 per share.
Share/Bookmark

SCRA, May details

Country 27-5-2010 During the Month (May,10 ) During the Year July,09 to date
 Inflow   Outflow   Net  flow   Cumulative inflow  Cumulative outflow  Cumulative Net  flow   Cumulative inflow  Cumulative out flow Cumulative Net  flow  
 Equity  TOTAL Equity TOTAL Equity T.Bills TOTAL Equity T.Bills Others TOTAL Equity T.Bills PIBs TOTAL Equity T.Bills Others TOTAL
Australia               -                 -               -          548          -            548          -            -           -            -                   548          5,468            -          -            5,468       7,970            -           -         7,970             (2,502)
B.V Island               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -               0            -           -               0                   (0)
Bahamas               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 43            -          -                 43          513            -           -            513                (470)
Bahrain               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -              -              -           -              -                     -  
Bermuda               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -         1,124            -           -         1,124             (1,124)
Camyan Island               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -               0            -           -               0                   (0)
Chile               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -         5,632            -           -         5,632             (5,632)
Denmark               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 76            -          -                 76             8            -           -               8                   68
France           159           159               -             159        159          -            159          -            -           -            -                   159             159            -          -               159       1,444            -           -         1,444             (1,285)
Germany           126           126               -             126        504          -            504          56          -           -            56                 448          3,119            -          -            3,119       1,569            -           -         1,569              1,550
Guernsey               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -               140            -          -               140            -              -           -              -                   140
Hong Kong           130           130             73             73             57     2,131          -         2,131     2,821          -           -       2,821                (690)        56,542            -          -          56,542     52,016            -           -       52,016              4,526
Japan               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -               570            -          -               570          204            -           -            204                 366
Liberia               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 20            -          -                 20          189            -           -            189                (169)
Korea               -                3              3             (3)          68          -              68            3          -           -              3                   65             650            -          -               650            19            -           -              19                 630
Kuwait               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -            1,334            -          -            1,334          600            -           -            600                 734
Luxembourg           420           420               -             420     3,227          -         3,227     3,001          -           -       3,001                 226        69,464            -          -          69,464     21,055            -           -       21,055            48,409
Malaysia               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -         2,331            -           -         2,331             (2,331)
Mauritius               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -              -              -           -              -                     -  
Nethetland               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 34            -          -                 34            -              -           -              -                     34
Oman               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 84            -          -                 84            -              -           -              -                     84
Philippine               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -              -              -           -              -                     -  
Qatar               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -              -              -           -              -                     -  
Srilanka               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -              -              -           -              -                     -  
Singapore               -                 -               -              8          -               8          -            -           -            -                       8          1,948            -          -            1,948       1,933            -           -         1,933                   15
Sweden               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -              -              -           -              -                     -  
Saudi Arabia               -                 -               -            -            -              -            -            -           -            -                     -                 -              -          -                 -              -              -           -              -                     -  
Switzerland               -               74             74            (74)     5,145          -         5,145     8,169          -           -       8,169             (3,024)        35,780            -          -          35,780     30,250            -         211     30,461              5,319
UAE               -                 -               -          450          -            450        106          -           -          106                 344        17,325     82,307   3,149       102,781     45,128     82,571         46    127,745           (24,964)
UK           343           343        1,931        1,931       (1,588)    10,987    27,177     38,164    24,187    21,787       225    46,199             (8,035)       217,676     53,991        -         271,667    160,346     21,787       456    182,589            89,078
USA        1,077        1,077        4,300        4,300       (3,223)    59,524          -       59,524    39,227          -           -      39,227             20,297       730,293            -     2,429       732,722    314,073            -             3    314,076           418,646
Total        2,255        2,255        6,381        6,381       (4,126)    82,751    27,177    109,928    77,570    21,787       225    99,582             10,346    1,140,726    136,298   5,578    1,282,602    646,404    104,358       717    751,479           531,123

Share/Bookmark