Or if you want to contact me directly using the email option. Send an email my way using the following link. I would try to respond to you as soon as possible;
Email me!
Or you can contact me using my cell phone as well (though its mostly off, sorry for that and this is my least favorite mode of contact);
+923455922906
Or you may want to join other visitors of this site on Facebook. We do have a group for you there as well, though I prefer to say what I have to say here, though I do not mind responding to you there as well.
Pakistan Stocks on Facebook
And don't forget to read the About page before contacting me, since it would help you gain an idea about my investment philosophy, what to expect etc.
Thank you for your interest!
To which broker house, you are affiliated?
ReplyDeleteGood question!
ReplyDeleteAnswer is none! The next question (from my side is), did you believe my reply; if not then why not; what made you think I maybe affiliated with a broker?
Because your research shows that you are analyst at any brokrage house.
ReplyDeleteNo dear visitor! I don't work with any broker, bank, financial institute etc. I have no affiliation with any broker what so ever. If that were the case wouldn't I mention the broker? I never, ever mention any broker. I fact, I don't even give buy and sell calls for any company stock either. I just publish the analysis that I do for myself and I don't charge anything for that either. No monetary incentive is involved at all. Its a sort of open source philosophy!
ReplyDeleteThis is Dr.Habib, new to stock market. how do you analyse nestle pakistan for long term investment at this time. should I wait for this bubble to end? when is that expected?
ReplyDeleteWelcome Habib!
ReplyDeleteTo me it appears quiet overvalued! I don't have it in my portfolio and neither do I intend to buy it in near future, unless, of course, a market crash brings it tumbling down.
For what, for nestle for for stock market entry. For nestle, yes would be wise.
You mean stock market crash? Who knows; if it were known to occur in near future, it would occur even earlier, as investors would try to make their exits now then late. KSE will collapse when international market will crash. Besides, KSE is being held up by foreign inflows. Seems safe at the moment.
sir wht u think about jscl. i mean can i buy jscl share at this time ? is it right time to buy jscl share for future investment
Deletesir wht about jscl in future? i mean can i buy at this time share? is it right time
ReplyDeletesir i think azgard nine , jhangir siddiqui , jsil , ssgs,sngp and ptcl these share may better in future i buy right now . sir whtz ur opinion?
ReplyDeleteLets just talk about the first one, since it would take too much time (and effort doing the same for all of the stocks you have mentioned all at once). Okay so I pull the meta analysis from my excel sheets and this is how data represents ANL;
ReplyDeleteStocks Analysis Summary
------------------------
1. Ratios Comparision -> 34.29 - Not good; should be at least 50 or higher
2. Fair Value Based Upside (cummulative) -> -199.37 - A negative number; not good at all
3. Price Performance -> 4 - 4 means its cheap at the moment
4. Fundamentals +ve's vs -vs's -> -9 - Again a negative number,; not good at the moment
So what idea do you derive from the above? I would remain away from such a stock.
ReplyDeleteYou mean know future (something that has not happened yet) and tell us about it at this time? Well, what do you think, is it possible? No, I don't think so. I can tell you have known data represents jscl. Summary of meta analysis (analysis based on separate analysis, which in turn is based on several, separate, data points;
Stocks Analysis Summary
------------------------
1. Ratios Comparision -> 74.00 - Good here
2. Fair Value Based Upside (cummulative) -> 184.14 - Superb
3. Price Performance -> 4 - Cheap to buy at the moment
4. Fundamentals +ve's vs -vs's -> 6 - Fine here too
So JSCL looks good for investment currently, fundamentals seem to state so. Go get it tiger!
sir whtz your suggetion. i have little investmen, i cant bear heavy loss right now. can i realy investment in stock market or otherwise i can w8
Delete"i have little investmen"
DeleteThis really doesn't matter. You earn (or loose) at same rate (ratio), whether you had a million invested or a thousand (yes, the total profit/loss would be different, of course).
"i cant bear heavy loss right now"
Nobody likes to loose money, now or ever. But stock markets are chaotic in nature, they fluctuate and therefore, value of your investment fluctuate too. But in the long run (which is measured in years) the trend has been up.
"can i realy investment in stock market or otherwise i can w8 "
Ah, now this is a tough one, since it seems to ask for future knowledge, which is not possible, for anyone. Future is probabilities! Would the market crash or continue? In the long run, both will occur, but when, that cannot be timed precisely. Just keep an eye on international economics. When the international markets fall, KSE follows; otherwise it takes a dip for a few days and then start following its peers.
sir how r u . sir after success of nawaz sharif whtz your opinion about bank of punjab?
Deletei realy confused . i wish to invest in stock market like bank of punjab , dewan salman , pakistan telecommunication , ssgc , sngp , jhangir siddiqui jscl but sir i m afraid . sir plz guide me which share i invest ? sir plz i need your assistance and above share i told u whtz your opinion
khanwarsi@yahoo.com
thnx sir
Salam. is it wise to enter stock market for a new comer when everything is overvalued, can you name a few stocks with good outlook in long term but are not overvalued. Regards
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteWell we don't buy the market as a whole, but individual stocks; so yes one can enter the market; for long term investors, there is always something, of value, that can be tucked away for the long haul.
I would tend to disagree with the above statement (completely, that is). If money is flowing into some stocks, thereby making them over valued, then that money is being sucked away from some other stocks, thereby making them under valued (unless, of course, it is fresh money entering the stock market, being diverted from some other income streams).
A few banks are making blips on my radar, that seem undervalued to me. I will name one for your consideration (but its your responsibility to take responsibility for your own decisions; that is check out the facts yourself before committing your money to ideas borrowed from others). HBL seems good to me at the moment. But, there are no guarantees. It looks undervalued to me, other (market participants) may not see it that way for a long time. Its on a nose dive at the moment, it may change course in future, but one needs patience, months of patience.
from where i can get the market price per share of last there year ends of dgkc
ReplyDeleteFrom me! Just tell me the start date and the email where I am to sent that data?
ReplyDeletesalam.
ReplyDeleteCan you please post your company ranking based on fundamental analysis as you last post on june 2010 or email me if possible.
Best Regards
Dear Habib!
DeleteI am not sure what kind of fundamentals are you talking about? Can you post the link to the page you are referring to, thanks!
can i have your updated email id... for Advertisement in our magazine brandsplayer
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by "updated"? And what is this advertisement about (no objection, just curious)! And here is the email ID that I use rashid19672006@gmail.com!
DeleteSALAM,
ReplyDeleteI Want to buy BYCO ? what about your opinion?can i buy this time?
Best Regards,
hello every one ...hope u al r good...so what is market is it time to take in and get a fresh position or not....if yes so what r recomendations..pls share your views
ReplyDeleteNo not such a good time as the availability of undervalued companies is quiet limited. But there maybe some investment opportunities left. A few (very few) banks still are available, that are undervalued by my criteria. Anyway its your decision finally. You would still get dividends, whether the individual shares are in profit or not. If you are a trader (anyone who sells shares by holding them for less than a year) then traders adopt different strategies to ones investors do. They buy on speculation, rumors, charts etc and I simply don't do that kind of voodoo with my money. The truth is that I am finding cheap, undervalued stocks very hard to find at the moment. Buys are difficult and selling the ones I had been holding since long, means I personally am sitting in a lot of cash, waiting for red days, when people go panic and throw their shares at bargain price. But when will it occur, I cannot predict that. Currently, market seems to be sustained by constant inflow of foreign money, and such has been the case since we started supporting war on terror and it appears to continue in near future as well.
DeleteHappy investing!
Hi, I really appreciate and very much impressed from your efforts towards Stocks analysis its give a a clear guide how company perform in the past. Well Done !
ReplyDeleteWhy you don't reserach on market outlook for the previous month and future outlook for upcomming month ? this will make more clear the picture of the Market.
waiting for a feedback.
I'm working in Portfolio Management Division of leading Investment company.
Thanks for your kind appreciation!
DeleteI do company analysis based on their reported financials, and since "market(s)" don't provide/have such reports therefore, analysis of similar kinds are not possible (though there are ways of analyzing the market, considering it as a set of all the companies that it comprises and then doing a collective analysis of all the companies data, but what's the point). I mean, we buy individual stocks not the market, right? Therefore, I would rather concentrate on the company analysis.
Anyway, there is much more data available, with me, and more analysis, which I am trying to figure out how to present, for this blog's readers in future.
Oh, and thanks for the visit.
A very pleasant day to you!
Mr Malik, could you do a stock analysis summary for Engro Foods (EFOODS) and Standard Chartered Modaraba (SCM) as I am keen on purchasing these shares.
ReplyDeleteThanks
any comments on udpl?
ReplyDeleteOn a scale (a scale based on 5 different complex analysis) of -5 to +5, UDPL is at -3; so that data implies that it is definitely not something a value investor would look forward to. So no to buying, and if you are in good profit, you certainly can sell it and pocket those rupees. But a word of caution. This analysis is based of company's financials. Most of the time market does not honor it and emotions dictate the price traders are willing to pay for a stock. So it is very much possible that the market might not honor what I have just said. So just consider my word as just an opinion and do what you want to do.
Deletebut it had a very strong eps in last quarter?
DeleteYes Rs 17.16 / share. So you want to but UDPL on EPS alone? I wouldn't do that but sure you can do whatever you want with your money.
DeleteHere I have just posted the lasted analysis, have a look (its still negative);
http://pakistan-stocks.blogspot.com/2013/07/udpl-united-distributors-pakistan.html
The previous comment was based on data reported by UDPL to KSE, that is without financial reports data, as the my usual place for gathering companies financial data did not have any on UDPL. But since you had such an interest, I found their half yearly report, from their site (they have still not posted their nine months report, so I don't know the reason for hike in their EPS, could be the result of some one time sale);
"The Company was able to achieve the profitability of Rs. 181.59 million as compared to
Rs. 2.24 million for the same period last year due to disposal of one of its investments made in Pioneer Seeds Pakistan Ltd. The deal went very well and the Company not only made healthy profits but was also able to significantly pay off its liabilities."
So the company is selling its investments and that is what is driving its high EPS;
"On the operating side the gross margin has incresed to 21% from 17% for the same period
last year. However, the un-supported economic conditions and adverse effect on overall
agricultural sector observed during the year 2012 have impacted the sales of the Company
for the period resulting in Rs. 160.24 million as compared to Rs. 322.87 million for the same period last year."
while its operating activities are normal.
Company had further investments in companies like FMC United (Private) Limited, IBL Healthcare Limited and International Brands (Private) Limited.
So there you have it, your reason for high EPS, it indeed was a one time affair.
I am still not going to buy UDPL for myself.
Oh and that EPS of Rs 17.16 I mentioned in the previous comment, its cumulative EPS of three quarters. Here is the actual EPS's of each individual quarter; First quarter Rs -0.90, Second Quarter Rs 21, Third Quarter Rs -3.8. So it was the second quarter that is boosting that cumulative, nine months EPS of Rs 17.16. And as I said earlier, it was a one time affair.
DeleteHappy investing!
Rashid, Thanks form all of us for sharing your wonderful work, insights and sound advise..I understand it requires hard work but your passion shines through . You mentioned you are a contrarian value investor but are not value investor contrarian by their very nature buying weakness and selling on strengths?
ReplyDeleteAlso on another note I wanted to share with you my list of current undervalued stock which also look good based on P/B ratios
MARI @ rs 166 should be @ rs 210
FEROZ @ 116 should be @rs 130
SNBL @8 should be @ rs 12
HICL@ 16 should be @ rs 22
PAKRI @ 26 should be rs 32
NICL @ rs 6 should be 8
BAWH @50 should rs 70
I would love to hear your thought on these picks and what do you think are fair values for them
Thank You
Also I have got another interesting pick will share soon...
SIR I M DOING MY THESIS WORK. I NEED STOCK BETA OF DIFFERENT FIRMS OF FROM YEAR 2007 T0 2011............CAN U HELP ME OUT TO GET THIS DATA............
ReplyDeletesir i need stock beta of firms from year 2006 to year 2011 for my thesis work...........
ReplyDeleteI know of no site that maintains a database of historic betas (I guess you meant KSE beta of KSE traded companies. I guess you would have to code it using some software, maybe Amibroker (which has a built in coding language, called AFL).
DeleteI need Financial analysis and ratios of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, Dynamic and Derives of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim and also share performance and future performance
ReplyDeleteFuture performance, how would anyone know that. I mean if anyone knew that wouldn't he bring the whole FFBL traded stock to its knees?
DeleteDear Mr Malik
ReplyDeleteI came across your website today while trying to google some info on KSE stocks. Living abroad, I find it difficult to get data on Pakistani stocks. A lot of info I come across on the internet is from chartists trying to look at 'trends' and momentum investing rather than valuing the stock. Your website offers invaluable information for people like me who are trying to buy larger companies (buy and hold forever) which are undervalued due to marker sentiment and offering good starting dividend yield and a solid EPS record and dividend payout record. Thank you for all the hard work you put in.
Best wishes.
Ashar
Dear Ashar,
DeleteAccept my deepest gratitude and tons of thanks for the kind words that you left behind, whose fragrance still lingers. It is so good to know that there are a few people out there who do understand what this blog is about and what it is not about. My intention is to expand the parameters that I post, but what I already do sucks so much time that I find it difficult to add more useful info (covering each and every company results, every quarter, is a job in itself. But more will surely come in due time.
Thanks once more.
To your health, wealth and happiness!
Dear Rashid,
ReplyDeleteI have just read your analysis of Indus Motors and found it very useful indeed. I have a few questions/ comments if that's OK.
1) Is it possible for you to include the company's EPS, FCF per share and Dividend record for the last five years? It will be useful to identify companies with a good and consistent record of reliable earnings and payouts.
2) When you calculate Book value, is this minus all intangibles (such as goodwill etc)?
3) Looking at Indus Motors records, the FCF per share (Rs 12.01) is much less than the EPS (Rs 34.90). This raises a few questions in my mind. Are profits not being converted to cash? or are profits being overstated? I have been made to believe that free cash flow per share is a much more reliable figure as compared with EPS as FCF is difficult to manipulate by accounting wizardry. Do you agree?
4) The dividend (Rs 25.00) is not well covered by the FCF per share (Rs12.01). This indicates to me that dividend may not be sustainable in future at current rate unless FCF increases significantly -or- the company is borrowing money to pay dividends which is the worst scenario!
Please let me know what you think.
Kind regards
Ashar
Dear Rashid,
DeleteIs there a stock screener available anywhere where I can input a certain criteria (like a ratio e.g EPS or price range or sector within a certain price range) that can short list scrips that meet my criteria? There is a serious dearth of information out there for the kind of analysis that I wish to run before I make a decision to buy a stock.
thanks
rehan.
Dear Rashid,
DeleteI stumbled on to your website while looking for quality data on the KSE stock market and was rather pleased with what you are doing there. Kudos!
I am interested in long term investment with solid stocks that have the ability to grow my income as well as provide capital appreciation from to price increase and interested in using fundamental analysis for making my stock picking decisions.
Can you guide me on how/where I can find reliable following information about all the companies on the KSE for the past 5 years:
1) Company Profits
2) Which companies provide Progressive Dividends (rising dividends)
3) Their cash generating capacity (cash flows history)
Also, what would be some good Financial ratios to look for in such an analysis?
My investment outlook is to ensure that my kitty remains intact and I beat the inflation as well. A steady stream of dividend income is the goal.
Would appreciate any help.
Happy Investing!!
Regards,
Rehan
P.S. I absolve you from liability that might arise due to my use of data that has been provided by you!
I am newbie, can someone please tell me where I can get analysts' estimations of EPS for all listed or at least leading companies in KSE? I get it on Reuters.com.but is it reliable enough to have an idea what our analysts think about how much the company is going to make? I need to be updated as soon as they revise their estimations for EPS.
ReplyDeleteRESPECTED SIR, I HAVE PURCHASED WTL SHARE @ 2.35 ... AT WHAT PRICE I SHOULD SALE MY SHARES? PLZ REPLY
ReplyDeleteRashid Malik Sahib, I need data on Total Assets, Profit After Tax, Cash Dividend %, Closing Price, Market Capitalization, Cash and EPS for all companies listed on KSE from 2004 to 2013 in consolidated form. Can you help me in the matter?
ReplyDeleteThanks