| Company | NBP |
| Company Name | National Bank Of Pakistan |
| EPS | 16 |
| Fair Price | 114.29 |
| Current Price | 76.71 |
| Upside Potential | 48.98 |
| Quarter | 30-Oct-2010 |
| Div | 7.5 |
| Fair Value | 53.57 |
| Upside Pot | -30.16 |
| Avg | 85.44 |
| Upside | 11.37 |
| Div Yield | 9.78% |
| Book Value | 88.45 |
| OCF/S | |
| P/E | 4.79 |
| P/BV | 0.87 |
| P/CF | #DIV/0! |
| Sector | Banks |
Last four quarters EPS is Rs 16. If we use this to arrive at a fair value for NBP, the value obtained is Rs 114.29 which gives an upside potential of 48.98%, based on the last closing price of Rs 76.71. P/E is 4.79 which is again okay. Next, lets analyze its dividebd payouts. During the last four quarters, NBP has paid Rs 7.5 as dividend, giving a dividend yield of 9.78% and the dividend based fair value of Rs 53.57, which is below the last trading close. Next lets take a look at its book value, which is Rs 88.45, giving P/BV value of 0.87, which is good. If we combine all three we get an average price of Rs 85.44 which gives an upside potential of 11.37%. So it seems that NBP has a limited potential. To be safe I would say that it is a HOLD call, meaning that if you have NBP in your portfolio, buy more if its price goes below your average buy rate. Where (how high or how low) the price will go is (and cannot be) known. What result NBP will announce is also not known (and neither should a value investor try to predict it). NBP constitutes 0.23% of my portfolio (bought between Rs 66.5 - 66.75). I am currently not buying this stock.
Happy investing!
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