"They make a forceful case with charts and ratios and historical data.
But they have been making the same argument for four years now, and they have been wrong all the way. Clearly, the world is more complicated than the pessimists assume.
The single most powerful variable when trying to predict the future is the "X" factor that represents human psychology, historical unknowns, and random chance. It doesn't care about your political views or what you think is a fair market value, and it's going to humiliate your predictions 90% of the time."
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