Tuesday, January 1, 2013

It can get a little messy!

Few people have what it takes to be great investors. Some can be taught, but not everyone . . .  and those who can be taught  can’t be taught everything. Valid approaches work some of the time but not all. And investing  can’t be reduced to an algorithm and turned over to a computer. Even the best investors don’t get it right every time.

The reasons are simple. No rule always works. The environment isn’t controllable, and circumstances rarely repeat exactly. Psychology plays a major role in markets, and because it’s highly variable, cause- and- effect relationships aren’t reliable. An investment approach may work for a while, but eventually the actions it calls for will change the environment, meaning a new approach is needed. And if others emulate an approach, that will blunt its effectiveness.

Investing, like economics, is more art than science. And that means it can get a little messy.
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