Monday, December 31, 2012

Banking Sector - Its MCR time again!

Banking Sector - Its MCR time again!                                                                Written as on December 31, 2012
Highlights
•         MCR proving to be a tough cookie to crack
•         What about those who are left behind?
 
As per State Bank of Pakistan , scheduled banks of the country are required to prop up their Minimum Capital to the level of Rs9bn. In today's Value Seeker, we take a look at the banks that are currently at the wrong side of the fence as far as meeting SBP's MCR is concerned.
MCR proving to be a tough cookie to crack
Keeping up with the global happenings, SBP in Apr-09 decided to bring down the MCR (free of losses and other adjustments) to level of Rs10bn by the end of year 2013 against previously indicated level of Rs23bn.  This translated in MCR of Rs9bn by the end of Dec 31, 2012, with the same reaching Rs10bn during the same period next year. However, there remain a heavy chunk of banks that are still finding it difficult to reach that safe figure of Rs9bn.
 
What about those who are left behind?
As per the figures released on 30 Sep-12, 11 out of our sample 23 banks are yet to meet the MCR figure for CY12. However, several of the aforementioned 8 banks have been working we have further divided these banks into those who can potentially meet the MCR. Banks such at FABL, AKBL, SNBL, BOK and BOP have enough reserves available to enable them to covert the said head into share capital. Resultantly, we foresee these banks giving out bonus dividends to bridge the gap between their share capital and SBP's prescribed MCR. And as per our conversation with the bank's management, BOK recently gave out bonus dividend and in effect fulfilled the MCR requirement.
On the other hand, banks not having substantial reserves to bolster their share capital are looking at alternatives to fulfill the MCR. SILK is in process of issuing preferred shares while, upon successful acquisition JSBL is going to meet the MCR. While, for banks such as such as BURJ, SMBL, BIPL, and KASB, the course of action still remains unclear. 
 

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SILK - SILKBANK Limited - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company SILK Symbol
Company Name SILKBANK Limited Company Name
Sector Commercial Banks
Avg EPS Rs -2.23 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs -23.44 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs 0.16 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs 1.68 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 2.30 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 0.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 0.00 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs -8.72 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside -479.34% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 0.00% Dividend yield
Book Value Rs 2.12 Book Value
FV CF/S Rs -19.93 Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 2,671,604,827 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities Rs 80,969.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S #VALUE! Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets Rs 86,639.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter September 2012 Data Quarter
CfO Rs -5,059.00 CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S Rs -1.89 Cash Flow per Share
P/E 14.38 Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 4.63 Sector Average P/E
P/B 1.08 Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 1.01 Sector Average P/B
PR 0.00 Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg 23.93 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio 0.00 Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio 1,187.43 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol SILK
Current Price Rs 2.30
Previous Day Price Rs 2.27
Daily Return 1.32%
Price Week Ago Rs 2.25
Weekly Return 2.22%
Price Month Ago Rs 2.25
Monthly Return 2.22%
Price Quarter Ago Rs 2.34
Quarterly Return -1.71%
Price Year Ago Rs 1.68
Yearly Return 36.90%

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PGCL - Pakistan Gum and Chemiclas Ltd. - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company PGCL Symbol
Company Name Pakistan Gum and Chemiclas Ltd. Company Name
Sector Chemicals
Avg EPS Rs 4.98 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs 52.44 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs 73.97 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs 778.63 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 163.00 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 8.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 84.21 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 2.44 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 25.73 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs 235.25 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside 44.33% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 4.91% Dividend yield
Book Value Error Book Value
FV CF/S Error Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 4,248,560 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S #VALUE! Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter NA Data Quarter
CfO NA CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S #VALUE! Cash Flow per Share
P/E 2.20 Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 3.09 Sector Average P/E
P/B
Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 1.53 Sector Average P/B
PR 10.82 Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg 28.06 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio 10.82 Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio 170.62 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol PGCL
Current Price Rs 163.00
Previous Day Price Rs 163.00
Daily Return 0.00%
Price Week Ago Rs 163.00
Weekly Return 0.00%
Price Month Ago Rs 163.50
Monthly Return -0.31%
Price Quarter Ago Rs 204.86
Quarterly Return -20.43%
Price Year Ago Rs 40.65
Yearly Return 300.98%

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FABL - Faysal Bank Limited - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company FABL Symbol
Company Name Faysal Bank Limited Company Name
Sector Commercial Banks
Avg EPS Rs 3.03 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs 31.93 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs 1.14 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs 12.00 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 10.39 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 0.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 1.72 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 18.13 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs -34.83 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside -435.21% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 0.00% Dividend yield
Book Value Rs 22.93 Book Value
FV CF/S Rs -159.29 Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 927,350,803 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities Rs 279,433.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S #VALUE! Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets Rs 300,701.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter September 2012 Data Quarter
CfO Rs -14,033.00 CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S Rs -15.13 Cash Flow per Share
P/E 9.11 Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 4.63 Sector Average P/E
P/B 0.45 Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 1.01 Sector Average P/B
PR 0.00 Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg 23.93 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio 0.00 Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio 1,187.43 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol FABL
Current Price Rs 10.39
Previous Day Price Rs 10.38
Daily Return 0.10%
Price Week Ago Rs 10.74
Weekly Return -3.26%
Price Month Ago Rs 11.10
Monthly Return -6.40%
Price Quarter Ago Rs 9.54
Quarterly Return 8.91%
Price Year Ago Rs 8.07
Yearly Return 28.75%

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YOUW - Yousuf Weaving Mills Limited. - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company YOUW Symbol
Company Name Yousuf Weaving Mills Limited.            Company Name
Sector Personal Goods (Textile)
Avg EPS Rs -0.05 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs -0.57 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs -1.94 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs -20.42 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 4.58 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 0.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 0.06 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 0.58 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs -7.09 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside -254.86% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 0.00% Dividend yield
Book Value Rs 3.15 Book Value
FV CF/S Rs -10.26 Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 40,000,000 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets Rs 835.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities Rs 1,488.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S Rs -16.33 Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets Rs 1,614.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter September 2012 Data Quarter
CfO Rs -39.00 CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S Rs -0.98 Cash Flow per Share
P/E -2.36 Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 0.95 Sector Average P/E
P/B 1.45 Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 0.71 Sector Average P/B
PR 0.00 Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg -0.79 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio 0.00 Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio 216.07 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol YOUW
Current Price Rs 4.58
Previous Day Price Rs 4.53
Daily Return 1.10%
Price Week Ago Rs 4.84
Weekly Return -5.37%
Price Month Ago Rs 4.44
Monthly Return 3.15%
Price Quarter Ago Rs 1.34
Quarterly Return 241.79%
Price Year Ago Rs 1.00
Yearly Return 358.00%

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SSML - Saritow Spinning Mills Ltd. - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company SSML Symbol
Company Name Saritow Spinning Mills Ltd.              Company Name
Sector Personal Goods (Textile)
Avg EPS Rs 1.96 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs 20.67 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs 7.39 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs 77.79 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 9.34 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 0.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 0.06 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 0.58 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs 24.76 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside 165.10% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 0.00% Dividend yield
Book Value Error Book Value
FV CF/S Error Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 29,840,607 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S #VALUE! Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter NA Data Quarter
CfO NA CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S #VALUE! Cash Flow per Share
P/E 1.26 Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 0.95 Sector Average P/E
P/B
Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 0.71 Sector Average P/B
PR 0.00 Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg -0.79 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio 0.00 Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio 216.07 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol SSML
Current Price Rs 9.34
Previous Day Price Rs 9.32
Daily Return 0.21%
Price Week Ago Rs 10.12
Weekly Return -7.71%
Price Month Ago Rs 8.51
Monthly Return 9.75%
Price Quarter Ago Rs 2.74
Quarterly Return 240.88%
Price Year Ago Rs 1.00
Yearly Return 834.00%

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KOIL - Kohinoor Industries Ltd. - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company KOIL Symbol
Company Name Kohinoor Industries Ltd.                 Company Name
Sector Personal Goods (Textile)
Avg EPS Rs -2.65 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs -27.85 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs 0.00 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs 0.00 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 3.01 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 0.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 0.00 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs -6.96 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside -331.31% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 0.00% Dividend yield
Book Value Error Book Value
FV CF/S Error Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 30,302,580 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S #VALUE! Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets NA Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter NA Data Quarter
CfO NA CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S #VALUE! Cash Flow per Share
P/E
Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 0.95 Sector Average P/E
P/B
Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 0.71 Sector Average P/B
PR
Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg -0.79 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio
Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio 216.07 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol KOIL
Current Price Rs 3.01
Previous Day Price Rs 3.08
Daily Return -2.27%
Price Week Ago Rs 3.52
Weekly Return -14.49%
Price Month Ago Rs 4.13
Monthly Return -27.12%
Price Quarter Ago Rs 2.02
Quarterly Return 49.01%
Price Year Ago Rs 0.96
Yearly Return 213.54%

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CWSM - Chakwal Spinning Mills Ltd. - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company CWSM Symbol
Company Name Chakwal Spinning Mills Ltd.              Company Name
Sector Personal Goods (Textile)
Avg EPS Rs 0.32 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs 3.34 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs 2.15 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs 22.63 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 8.25 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 0.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 0.06 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 0.58 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs 2.99 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside -63.81% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 0.00% Dividend yield
Book Value Rs 9.23 Book Value
FV CF/S Rs 1.11 Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 40,000,000 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets Rs 600.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities Rs 1,108.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S Rs -12.70 Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets Rs 1,477.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter September 2012 Data Quarter
CfO Rs 4.21 CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S Rs 0.11 Cash Flow per Share
P/E 3.84 Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 0.95 Sector Average P/E
P/B 0.89 Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 0.71 Sector Average P/B
PR 0.00 Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg -0.79 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio 0.00 Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio 216.07 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol CWSM
Current Price #N/A
Previous Day Price #N/A
Daily Return #N/A
Price Week Ago #N/A
Weekly Return #N/A
Price Month Ago #N/A
Monthly Return #N/A
Price Quarter Ago #N/A
Quarterly Return #N/A
Price Year Ago #N/A
Yearly Return #N/A

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FNEL - First Nat.Equities - Analysis - 31/12/2012

Company FNEL Symbol
Company Name First Nat.Equities Company Name
Sector Financial Services
Avg EPS Rs -1.86 Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV Rs -19.53 Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS Rs 0.27 Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV Rs 2.84 Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price Rs 4.02 Last closing stock price
Updated December 2012 Data Month/Year
Div Rs 0.00 Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV Rs 0.00 Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div Rs 1.00 Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV Rs 10.53 Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current)
Avg Rs -1.79 Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside -144.56% Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield 0.00% Dividend yield
Book Value Rs -3.17 Book Value
FV CF/S Rs 0.72 Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares 138,000,000 Number of  Outstanding Shares
Current Assets Rs 598.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities Rs 1,485.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S Rs -6.43 Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets Rs 1,048.00 Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter September 2012 Data Quarter
CfO Rs 9.41 CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S Rs 0.07 Cash Flow per Share
P/E 14.89 Price over earnings ratio
P/E Sector Avg 30.65 Sector Average P/E
P/B -1.27 Price over book value ratio
P/B Sector Avg 0.41 Sector Average P/B
PR 0.00 Payout Ratio (in %)
PR Sector Avg 13.41 Sector average Payout Ratio (in %)
D/E Ratio 0.00 Debt / Equite ratio (%)
Sector D/E Ratio -36.16 Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%)
Symbol FNEL
Current Price Rs 4.02
Previous Day Price Rs 4.05
Daily Return -0.74%
Price Week Ago Rs 4.10
Weekly Return -1.95%
Price Month Ago Rs 4.55
Monthly Return -11.65%
Price Quarter Ago Rs 4.90
Quarterly Return -17.96%
Price Year Ago Rs 2.54
Yearly Return 58.27%

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