Monday, January 14, 2013

Know thy forecasters!

• They think knowledge of the future direction of economies, interest rates, markets and widely followed mainstream stocks is essential for investment success.
• They’re confident it can be achieved.
• They know they can do it.
• They’re aware that lots of other people are trying to do it too, but they figure either (a) everyone can be successful at the same time, or (b) only a few can be, but they’re among them.
• They’re comfortable investing based on their opinions regarding the future.
• They’re also glad to share their views with others, even though correct forecasts should be of such great value that no one would give them away gratis.
• They rarely look back to rigorously assess their record as forecasters.
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