Monday, June 25, 2012

Pakistan Strategy


New PM; same dilemma

 
Mr. Raja Pervez Ashraf is Pakistan's new Prime Minister  
Mr. Raja Pervez Ashraf of the Pakistan People's Party has emerged as the new Prime Minister of Pakistan securing the seat with a 211-89 margin victory in the voting conducted in the National Assembly on Friday, 22nd June. 
 
Letter to Swiss authorities to draw most attention 
Given the circumstances surrounding his appointment ie backdrop of the disqualification of the previous Prime Minister and the limited time between now and the next elections (tenure of the government ends in 1Q13, while early elections are likely), the credentials of Mr. Ashraf are likely to receive limited interest (his brief bio is given below). There are likely to be more questions on his immediate actions.  
The most important question would be whether the new PM would write the letter to Swiss authorities or are we poised for a replay of the episode involving Mr. Gilani (details at the end), which would effectively mean continued diversion of focus away from macro and geo-political issues. Interestingly, the Supreme Court has also set the hearing of the NRO case for 27th June and the signs are ominous, as PPP is likely to stick to its guns. A couple of additional petitions regarding the same have also been filed in the courts, which could lead to hearing of the case beginning even earlier. 
 
Legal cover to interim measures of Gilani cabinet provided 
Since the ex-PM, Mr Gilani was disqualified w.e.f. 26th April; there was a question over the legality of decisions taken between 26th April and 19th June. President Zardari has however issued an Ordinance over the weekend, providing legal cover to all interim decisions which should be taken positively by the market. Of utmost importance to the KSE was the budget, which endorsed the CGT relief package announced via a Presidential Ordinance in Apr-12

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