"Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. It is also related to a problem called denigration of history as gamblers, investors, and decision makers feel that the sort of things that happen to others would not necessarily happen to them."
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