Saturday, September 1, 2012

Answers To The Biggest Market Questions

Why did the market do X?
There are so many participants in the market, someone probably bought or
sold today because their favorite popsicle was out of stock at the
grocery store. Whatever reason you can invent, someone somewhere
probably acted on it. The result of all that foolishness is the market
price. Thus, the real answer to "Why?" is always the same: All of the
above. A useless answer to a pointless question.

Are the markets rigged/manipulated?
Of course they are. Face it, if you don't think you know something the
other guy doesn't, you shouldn't make a trade. Don't act surprised that
everyone else tries to gain an advantage, too. But until some legislator
passes a bill that requires you to invest, your participation is
voluntary. Figure out a way to deal with "unfair" markets, or take your
ball and go home.

Don't I have to be in stocks to be able to retire comfortably?
No, you need to save money in order to retire comfortably. What you do
with it after you save it isn't that important. When your costs
decrease, the options you have in life increase. You become more free.
People die to be more free, while you fritter your freedom away buying
$5 cups of coffee, a McMansion, and a mid-life-crisis-mobile. Making up
for that is what requires taking bigger risks.

Is there a secret to success in the market?
Yes, stop looking for a secret. One of the things that makes the markets
so fascinating is that investing can be as hard as you want to make it.
Like a Chinese finger trap, if you stop trying so hard it's easier to
succeed. Being simple doesn't mean a strategy can't work. Simple is
often the hardest thing to do, so it will continue to work because few
people will actually do it. It's so much more fun to keep tinkering
until you achieve a Rube Goldberg level of complexity and then sell it
to some sucker, probably in local government.

How can I turn $10 into one billion dollars?
There are three ways:
1) Become a central bank.
2) Use a magic marker, a lot of confidence, and a winning smile.
3) Become immortal and avoid currency collapses.
The second method is probably the most achievable.

What will the market do (tomorrow, next week, next year)?
Trying to predict the future is almost as foolish as thinking anyone who
could would give you an honest answer to the question. Based on my
proprietary indicators and years of research, I can guarantee that over
any period of time the market will do one of only four things: Go up, go
down, do nothing, or be closed. Be prepared for any of those events to
occur at random and find a way to make money in all of them.

Should I become a full-time trader?
If you have to ask, then the answer is no. When you're ready to be a
full-time trader, you will take a vacation from work and one year later
realize you never went back. When you have tough times, getting a job
again won't be something you consider. It's like masturbation: You know
when you're ready and don't need to ask someone else if you should.

Which is better, fundamental or technical analysis?
Both. All value is subjective so no truly objective measurement of it is
possible. Fundamental analysis ensures you will eventually have a number
of similarly deceived fools on board your ship, while technical analysis
tells you what the rest of the fleet of fools is doing.

Why should I believe what you say?
Because you are a self-selected sample. You have no idea what to do,
otherwise you would never click on a headline like the one I used. More
importantly, I can help rationalize your decisions, while flipping coins
can't.
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