Our analysis of demand situation, also supported by preliminary indications from channel checks, lead us to believe that the market leader FFC would be able to sell impressive 380k-420k tons of urea in Jun12
Subsequently, we expect FFC’s 2QCY12E earnings to reach PKR4.0/sh, representing 30% growth QoQ and 23% growth YoY
We expect FFC to announce another urea price hike of ~PKR100/bag on July 1, 2012, taking price to older levels of PKR1,800/bag. However, this price level would not compensate for gas cess applicable for FY13
Thus, reduced margins from Jul12 onwards mean that second quarter’s strong bottom line performance would not be repeated. Resultantly we maintain our annual CY12E EPS forecast of PKR14.5/share for FFC
At yesterday’s closing, FFC provides a dividend yield of 12.5% for CY12 and a minor upside of 2% to our Dec12 TP of PKR113/sh, justifying ADD stance
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