KSE EOD Daily Share Price Data - 13/06/2012

For: June 13, 2012
SYMBOL	OPEN RATE	HIGH RATE	LOW RATE	CLOSING RATE	TURNOVER
AACIL	3.42	3.73	3.5	3.5	29,296
AASM	23.59	23	23	23.59	202
ABL	63.99	64.44	63.6	63.6	1,602
ABOT	116	116.99	114	115.24	7,718
ACPL	76.1	77	76	76.78	8,700
ADAMS	20.5	20.17	19.55	20.5	440
AGIL	80.03	84.03	81.8	82.97	700
AGL	13.02	12.99	12.7	12.7	2,110
AGSML	21.17	20.94	20.12	20.93	1,018
AGTL	206	207	207	206	1
AHCL	31.22	31.74	31.05	31.16	757,526
AHCL-CJUN	31.47	0	0	31.39	0
AHI	14.59	14.99	14.6	14.65	4,292
AHL	31.8	32.74	31.75	32.24	86,623
AICL	62.06	63.23	58.99	59.14	386,689
AKBL	13.58	13.84	13.35	13.49	209,005
AKDCL	31.99	32.5	32	32.3	3,075
AMBL	8.84	9.59	8.5	9.59	81,600
AMTEX	1.9	2.02	1.9	1.94	59,767
ANL	5.85	6.06	5.61	5.72	1,748,429
ANSS	6.5067	6.5	6.5	6.5	500
APL	444.93	450	443	445.04	11,358
ARM	32.25	33.86	33.86	32.25	480
ARUJ	6	5.75	5.75	6	300
ATBA	205.82	205.1	202.01	203.68	745
ATFF	8	8.5	8	8.5	25,000
ATIL	30	30	29.8	29.8	6,200
ATLH	144.37	149	145.19	146.13	9,458
ATRL	123.56	125.51	123.25	123.67	100,463
ATRL-CJUN	124.54	0	0	124.6	0
BAFL	16.12	16.59	16.25	16.4	6,075,283
BAFL-CJUN	16.25	0	0	16.52	0
BAHL	28.27	28.45	27.95	28.08	251,464
BAHL-CJUN	28.49	0	0	28.29	0
BAHLTFC2	102.85	0	0	102.85	0
BAPL	6.81	7.29	6.95	6.81	102
BATA	639.56	625.01	625.01	639.56	4
BAWS	10.75	10.75	10.75	10.75	10
BERG	12.39	13	12	12.89	18,206
BGL	2.85	3.2	2.67	2.9	32,810
BHAT	220	210	210	220	99
BIPL	9.25	9.58	9.22	9.34	412,655
BNWM	23	23.68	23.68	23	1
BOK	7.51	7.79	7.52	7.52	3,388
BOP	7.84	8.03	7.74	7.78	874,845
BPL	48.12	50.52	45.73	46.31	123,326
BROT	1.21	1.35	1.32	1.21	201
BYCO	8.52	8.79	8.53	8.58	735,315
CCM	19.91	20.85	19.25	19.36	1,663
CECL	10.79	11.6	11.6	10.79	300
CENI	9.83	10.45	9.79	9.8	4,003
CEPB	20.97	21.39	20.25	20.38	54,031
CFL	9.5	9.9	9.9	9.5	1
CHBL	1.89	2.14	1.57	1.99	4,010
CHCC	26.75	28.08	26.75	27.1	501,621
CJPL	0.87	1	0.9	0.87	4
CLCPS	0.48	0.64	0.48	0.48	191,503
CLOV	92.17	96.77	90	94.5	2,750
CML	1.84	1.85	1.65	1.84	3
COTT	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	500
CPAL	0.98	1.97	1.97	0.98	1
CPL	161.79	165	161.9	163.87	7,611
CPPL	29.67	29.99	29.55	29.67	150
CRTM	8.95	9.95	9.95	9.95	20,000
CSAP	21.5	21.74	21.53	21.5	150
CSM	0.96	1.01	0.86	0.87	55,481
CSUML	3.38	3.3	2.82	3.3	53,112
CWSM	2	2.48	2.25	2.28	570
CYAN	68.9	70	66.5	66.5	3,887
DADX	43.84	42	41.66	43.84	135
DAWH	36.2	36.69	35.85	36.01	71,922
DBCI	2.15	2.59	2.14	2.15	12,051
DCH	2.25	2.32	2.2	2.23	63,927
DCL	3.6	3.95	3.52	3.64	920,001
DEL	2.05	2.29	2	2	7,559
DFML	2.3	2.47	2.27	2.27	32,517
DGKC	39.43	40.15	39.1	39.75	3,500,274
DKTM	2.45	2.99	2.99	2.45	10
DLL	52	52.99	49.41	52	40
DMTM	7.4	8.35	6.41	7.96	43,686
DNCC	3	3	3	3	50
DOL	3.76	3.88	3.76	3.77	62,902
DSFL	1.65	1.7	1.58	1.6	76,918
DSIL	1.51	1.7	1.51	1.7	55,551
DSL	2.45	2.85	2.5	2.78	403,816
DWAE	2.61	2.99	2.6	2.6	4,458
DWSM	3.07	2.95	2.95	2.95	5,800
DYNO	19.4	20	19.98	20	551
ECOP	5.5	5.6	4.55	5.6	20,621
EFLTFC	101.7	0	0	101.7	0
EFOODS	63.17	65	60.5	61.38	3,959,617
EFUG	83.75	84.25	82.5	82.78	20,932
EFUL	63.14	64	62	62.6	20,644
ELCM	16.05	16.85	16.85	16.85	500
ELSM	26.31	26	26	26.31	100
EMCO	3	2.48	2.48	3	2
ENGRO	107.12	109.3	101.77	102.13	10,026,605
ENGRO-CJUN	107.97	0	0	102.89	0
ENGROTFC	100.2969	0	0	100.2969	0
ENGROTFC2	100	0	0	100	0
EPCL	10.09	10.2	9.81	9.91	486,043
ESBL	2.05	2.05	2.05	2.05	1,000
EWLA	6.25	6	6	6.25	499
EXIDE	191.16	192	190.75	190.8	1,500
FABL	11.12	11.2	11.05	11.08	21,579
FABLTFC	99.99	0	0	99.99	0
FANM	4.53	4.51	4.5	4.5	2,000
FATIMA	24.06	24.35	23.85	23.91	1,640,492
FCCL	5.81	5.95	5.66	5.72	1,491,531
FCIBL	3.46	3.5	3.5	3.46	201
FCSC	2.71	2.88	2.88	2.71	1
FDIBL	1.36	1.86	1.3	1.48	2,806
FDMF	3.93	3.9	3.9	3.9	5,999
FECM	3.28	3.4	3.05	3.16	2,524
FECTC	13.85	14.29	13.5	13.69	102,434
FEM	1.4	1.7	1.35	1.4	20
FEROZ	78.39	82.3	78.3	82.3	24,122
FFBL	39.24	39.39	38.9	39	853,040
FFBL-CJUN	39.55	0	0	39.29	0
FFC	106.92	107.5	105.75	106.23	2,022,394
FFC-CJUN	107.77	0	0	107.03	0
FFLM	2.5	2.55	2.42	2.53	45,517
FHAM	7.74	7.8	7.8	7.8	500
FHBM	8.12	8.6	8.02	8.12	10,025
FLYNG	2.96	3.07	2.9	2.94	102,219
FNBM	5	5.85	4.3	4.37	78,510
FNEL	6.03	6.19	6	6.14	502,138
FPJM	1	1.01	1.01	1	300
FRSM	22.7	22.97	22.8	22.7	310
FUDLM	7.07	7.25	7.12	7.22	1,200
GADT	62.17	63.27	62	62.86	21,509
GAIL	2.9	2.89	2.8	2.8	3,050
GASF	4.86	4.9	4.82	4.83	8,793
GATM	21.92	22.69	21.01	21.92	3
GENP	1.15	1.4	1.15	1.2	91,037
GGL	8.96	9.1	8.96	9.05	32,627
GHGL	57.92	58	57.65	57.98	14,120
GHNI	6.4	7.2	6.4	7	19,971
GHNL	4.05	4.4	4.05	4.15	200,134
GLAXO	63.07	63.79	62.55	63.36	12,032
GLPL	64.52	65.5	63.88	64.52	242
GRAYS	28.9	30.3	27.5	28	9,385
GSPM	5.75	6.13	5.77	5.97	7,002
GTYR	21.44	21.75	21.42	21.43	34,840
GUSM	4.33	4.2	4.2	4.2	500
GWLC	4.48	4.9	4.41	4.52	1,156
HABSM	21.31	21.49	21.15	21.16	38,675
HADC	3.15	3.37	2.71	2.8	251,382
HAJT	0.9	0.82	0.65	0.73	6,500
HBL	103.56	105	103.2	103.89	44,862
HCAR	11.57	12.23	11.25	11.5	2,031
HICL	11.47	11.5	11.2	11.21	5,525
HINO	77	77.85	75.06	75.7	2,745
HINOON	36.48	36.3	35.5	36.3	14,050
HIRAT	10.51	11.39	9.91	10.91	22,016
HMB	17.42	17.5	17.06	17.25	62,780
HSPI	23.5	23.95	23.6	23.6	525
HUBC	40.22	41	40	40.77	4,721,555
HUBC-CJUN	40.54	0	0	41.08	0
IBFL	54.95	53	52.21	52.76	2,201
IBLHL	21.46	22.1	21	21.23	5,795
ICCT	1.7	1.7	1.55	1.55	7,699
ICI	130.22	131	129.4	129.84	16,517
ICIBL	0.79	0.88	0.8	0.8	166,681
IDRT	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	293
IDSM	7.775	7.6348	7.6348	7.6348	0
IDYM	394.98	380	375.24	375.99	304
IFSL	16.8	17.4	16.5	17.26	6,051
IGIBL	2.16	2.25	2.08	2.12	496,818
IGIIL	65.6	68.88	65	65.43	9,980
ILTM	212.14	219.85	203.01	212.14	2
INDU	270.46	270	265	265.7	6,825
INIL	29.51	29.5	29	29	535
ISL	11.9	12.43	11.5	12.03	14,385
JDWS	93.99	94.99	91.25	94.19	1,270
JGICL	54	54	54	54	2,000
JLICL	73.39	75.25	71.75	74.37	8,000
JOPP	9.52	9.99	9	9.52	301
JPGL	1.57	1.65	1.45	1.49	761,316
JSBL	5.1	5.29	5.11	5.15	688,500
JSCL	14.08	14.48	13.61	13.77	4,382,813
JSGCL	27.72	27.23	26.52	27	15,203
JSGF	7.05	7.11	7	7.04	66,033
JSIL	7.6	7.8	7.1	7.29	1,018,331
JSVFL	7	7.03	7.03	7.03	3,500
KAPCO	43.57	43.95	43.5	43.75	124,803
KAPCO-CJUN	43.91	0	0	44.08	0
KASBB	2.25	2.34	2.21	2.22	36,029
KASBM	4	4	4	4	10
KASBSL	3.75	3.9	3.5	3.8	35,512
KESC	3.39	3.47	3.3	3.33	155,577
KML	2.26	2.45	2.38	2.38	1,753
KOHC	36.7	37.9	36.5	36.71	19,612
KOHP	1.73	2.19	2.19	1.73	50
KOHS	3.3	2.83	2.83	2.83	500
KOHTM	5.52	6.52	5.9	5.9	2,001
KOIL	1.18	1.25	1.05	1.09	21,113
KSBP	48.48	50.39	47.5	47.61	5,469
KTML	3.93	4.15	3.7	3.73	88,954
LEUL	4.38	4.34	3.4	4.38	4
LINDE	111.19	116.74	112	116.74	43,033
LMSM	2.1	2.4	1.7	2.35	25,504
LOTPTA	7.63	7.8	7.5	7.54	711,016
LPCL	4.45	4.6	4.3	4.42	1,336,896
LPGL	11.91	12.75	12.7	11.91	2
LUCK	117.37	118.3	114.16	115.72	2,137,294
LUCK-CJUN	118.3	0	0	116.59	0
MACFL	16.5	17.1	15.62	16.51	4,509
MARI	87.05	88	86.05	86.41	27,089
MBF	10.1	10.23	9.91	10.09	1,306
MCB	154.96	157.5	154	155.13	410,364
MCB-CJUN	156.19	0	0	156.29	0
MDTL	4.15	5	3.77	4.76	56,957
MEBL	27.46	27.9	27	27.42	77,442
MFFL	345.63	345	335	343.11	222
MFTM	1.14	1.1	0.81	0.81	5,990
MLCF	5.05	5.09	4.85	4.88	135,391
MRNS	45.05	46.4	45.25	45.82	808
MTIL	1.26	1.45	1.1	1.35	39,282
MTL	478.16	490	468.5	472.82	15,341
MUKT	0.71	0.89	0.67	0.71	14,030
MUREB	96.59	97	93.5	93.53	4,985
MWMP	2.86	3.3	3.06	3.07	31,270
MZSM	2	2.01	2	2	7,000
NATF	199.32	205	197	198.06	1,192
NBP	42.55	43.01	42.1	42.37	1,228,678
NCL	17.4	17.74	17.51	17.6	10,761
NCPL	15.13	15.25	15	15	188,503
NESTLE	4054.26	4074.99	4025.01	4052.69	9
NETSOL	13.59	14.1	13.52	13.97	109,263
NEXT	7.6	8.38	7.21	7.6	12
NIB	1.99	2.02	1.98	1.99	1,756,864
NIBTFC	98.969	0	0	98.969	0
NICL	3.74	3.85	3.65	3.73	271,017
NML	47.25	47.91	46.85	47.01	697,192
NOPK	47.67	49.98	45.29	45.47	3,340
NOPKNV	19.69	19.75	19	19.47	1,100
NPL	15	15.1	14.86	15	187,613
NRL	227.09	230.74	227.15	229.87	30,665
NSB10Y1	100	0	0	100	0
OGDC	150.1	151.9	145	147.63	923,824
OLPL	10.55	10.8	10.5	10.8	12,062
OLSM	4.69	4.85	4	4.54	11,300
OLTM	5.94	6.7	6.7	5.94	1
PACE	1.95	2.05	1.93	2	102,128
PAEL	5.78	6	5.75	5.77	156,370
PAKD	60.01	62.84	60.05	62	1,604
PAKMI	2.19	2.19	1.52	1.52	3,000
PAKRI	15.85	16.1	15.75	15.98	245,057
PASL	1.51	1.69	1.5	1.56	106,360
PASM	7.51	7.41	7.06	7.22	2,000
PCAL	38.8	39	39	39	0
PEF	7.5	7.6	7.5	7.6	35,203
PGCL	115.19	118.5	118.49	118.5	249
PGF	12.19	12.4	12	12	118,155
PIAA	2.1	2.29	2.03	2.1	51,535
PICT	144.47	142	142	142	500
PIF	5.5	5.69	5.45	5.45	24,100
PIL	6.21	5.26	5.26	5.26	500
PINL	7.01	7.4	7.2	7.25	1,001
PIOC	9.59	9.93	9.5	9.68	35,619
PKGP	12.45	12.7	12.5	12.69	16,063
PKGS	101.39	106	100	100.83	149,227
PMI	1.2	1.25	1.25	1.25	500
PMPK	157.91	165.8	160	165.8	10,055
PMTFC6	98.6324	0	0	98.6324	0
PNGRS	2.14	2.25	2.1	2.11	2,156
POL	354.02	355.9	349.71	351.79	445,688
POML	43.7	44	44	44	0
PPL	182.84	184.5	181.8	182.89	275,499
PPP	46.28	46.5	44.5	46.28	250
PRET	25	26.25	26	26.25	11,300
PRL	57.55	58.7	57.36	57.66	5,184
PSMC	88.75	90.42	89	90.23	26,880
PSO	239.87	241.5	234	235.29	854,895
PSYL	17.16	17	16.61	17.16	2
PTC	13.89	14.49	13.72	13.84	5,933,645
PTEC	5	5	5	5	25,000
QUET	24.47	25.69	24.69	24.47	443
QUICE	8.12	8.4	7.8	7.9	51,441
RAVT	1.2	1.38	1.11	1.12	8,675
REDT	1.01	1.02	0.9	0.91	43,500
REST	12.6	13.6	13.6	12.6	5
RUPL	26.54	26	25.25	25.28	2,600
SAIF	7.26	8	7.12	7.75	979
SAPL	180.99	187.87	180	180.99	10
SARC	4.99	4.79	4.01	4.01	9,501
SASML	7	8	7.5	7	32
SAZEW	30.54	31.64	29.61	29.69	1,730
SBL	2.15	2.25	2.15	2.16	55,502
SCBPL	10.76	11.76	10.99	11.66	325,794
SCL	129.51	135.89	125	129.51	6
SEARL	47.39	48.99	46.5	48.83	7,017
SEPCO	1.11	1.2	1.05	1.09	84,347
SEPL	43.03	43.01	43.01	43.03	200
SERT	1.1	1.1	0.9	0.93	3,000
SGML	12.33	12.75	12	12.28	44,916
SGPL	1.14	1.5	1.15	1.5	2,001
SHCI	1.65	1.7	1.62	1.65	251
SHEL	131.25	131.5	130	130.03	13,755
SHFA	29.97	31.3	31.24	31.24	525
SHSML	9.56	10.13	10	9.56	2
SIBL	2	2.8	2.8	2	1
SIEM	675.13	685	655	675.13	16
SILK	2.07	2.13	2.05	2.1	240,139
SITC	105.51	107.5	106	106.03	351
SJTM	2.78	1.78	1.78	2.78	109
SMBL	3.02	3.19	3.03	3.13	633,989
SMBLTFC	98.2045	0	0	98.2045	0
SMCPL	6.25	6.5	6.49	6.25	52
SMTM	4	4	4	4	5,768
SNAI	40	41.7	38	40	28
SNBL	7.72	7.87	7.5	7.69	306,546
SNGP	17.01	17.5	16.01	16.01	1,143,625
SPL	10.38	10.49	10.25	10.3	13,607
SPLC	1	1.15	1.15	1	10
SRVI	167.86	168.7	165	165.04	508
SSGC	19.94	20.3	19.6	19.61	5,796
SSIC	5.2	5.5	5.5	5.2	315
SSML	2	1.98	1.96	1.98	2,001
STPL	7.5	7.95	7.79	7.79	1,001
TAJT	0.44	0.6	0.55	0.55	5,000
TDIL	11.07	11.38	11	11	3,011
TELE	1.55	1.6	1.5	1.55	219,553
TGL	15.66	16.24	15.65	15.93	25,184
THALL	95.35	95.5	93.5	94.41	5,531
TREET	56.08	56.59	54.51	54.75	19,143
TREI	2.6	2.88	2.5	2.6	24,602
TRG	3.73	3.87	3.56	3.61	704,759
TRIPF	203.31	209.99	195.51	201.82	5,688
TRSM	2.6	3	3	2.6	5
TSMF	0.87	1.21	1.21	0.87	1
TSPL	1.13	1.38	0.9	1.13	4
UBL	75.99	76.4	75.02	76.07	435,484
UBLTFC2	95.05	0	0	95.05	0
UDPL	9.32	9.5	9.5	9.32	98
ULEVER	7162.5	7480	7249	7380	97
UPFL	2762.5	2798.99	2798.99	2762.5	1
UVIC	2.78	2.95	2.7	2.78	403
WAHN	44.6	44.9	44.5	44.6	389
WTCL	2.2	2.25	2.16	2.25	36,669
WTL	2.03	2.17	2.04	2.11	519,477
Total Turnover					77,658,282

KSE EOD Daily Share Price Data - 13/06/2012

Pakistan - Market factors to watch - June 18

Following is a list of events in Pakistan as well as news stories and
press reports which may influence financial markets.


MARKET SNAPSHOTS

* The Pakistani rupee firmed on Friday to close at 94.13/18 against the
dollar compared to 94.22/28 on Thursday.

* The Karachi Stock Exchange benchmark 100-share index rose 0.01
percent, or 1.68 points, on Friday to close at 13,657.88 points on
volume of 75.8 million shares.

* Foreign investors sold shares worth a net $2,392,496 on Friday.

* U.S. stocks rallied on Friday to close a second straight week of gains
on hopes of collective action from global central banks if Sunday's
election in Greece triggers market turmoil. On Friday, the Dow Jones
industrial average gained 115.26 points, or 0.91 percent, to 12,767.17
at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 13.74 points, or
1.03 percent, to 1,342.84. The Nasdaq Composite rose 36.47 points, or
1.29 percent, to end at 2,872.80.

* Crude futures rose in early Asian trade on Monday as Greece's
pro-bailout parties looked set to win a slim majority at weekend
elections, easing investor fears of an imminent exit from the euro
zone.U.S. crude had risen 74 cents to $84.77 per barrel by 2337 GMT,
while Brent crude climbed 99 cents to $98.60 per barrel. Both Brent and
U.S. crude touched one-month highs earlier.

* Gold fell for the first time in seven sessions on Monday as the risk
of a Greek exit from the euro zone subsided after parties backing a
bailout for the country won an election, denting the metal's safe-haven
appeal. Gold fell more than 1 percent to a low of $1,606.49 an ounce
before bouncing to $1,623.56 by 0043 GMT, down $4.23. Bullion is more
than $200 below a record of around $1,920 struck in September last year.

Pakistan - Market factors to watch - June 18

NML: Sustaining the Pressure

Cotlook A index bottomed to its lowest (since Feb10) at USD0.78 during the first week of Jun-12. The sluggish price performance is primarily attributable to rising inventory levels and renewed concerns on global economic slowdown    The ending stocks are estimated to propel by 11% to 74.5mn tons in FY13 mainly driven by hefty pile up in Chinese inventory. That said, the jump in world stock/use ratio to 68.3% (versus last 4 year average of 51%) remains a key downside risk to recovery in cotton prices     The profitability of the company remained depressed during 9MFY12 as the earnings of the company declined by 27% YoY to PKR2.5bn (EPS: PKR7.2). The 34% YoY surge in Fuel and Power cost to PKR3.0bn remain the major culprit behind lower margins as it offset the impact of falling cotton    In order to counter the prevailing gas crisis in the country, the company embarked on an alternate fuel project to generate both power and steam through utilizing cheaper inputs (mainly coal and bio-mass)    The EU parliament has finally approved the amended Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) thus allowing zero duty Pakistani exports to EU countries. The recent development bodes well NML given the 1) strong presence of NML in EU market and 2) NML’s high share of value added items exported to EU countries    A timely and concrete solution to the prevailing energy crisis remains a key to sectors’ performance; otherwise, the fate of the GSP status will be nothing but another opportunity wasted    1) Robust dividend income (a strong guard against volatility in cotton market), 2) implementation of energy efficiency measures and 3) approval of GSP status by EU parliament will remain the key triggers, going forward. That said, we reiterate our liking for NML based on our SoTP based target price of PKR60/share, depicting a total return of 27%.

NML: Sustaining the Pressure

Textile: Core business to remain under pressure in 4Q

 

June 18, 2012 (JS Research)

 

We anticipate the textile sector’s core business to remain under pressure during the last quarter of FY12. Our view is supported by low cotton prices (averaging at Rs5,807 per maund in 4Q) and rising energy costs (up on an average 2.4x YoY in 9MFY12). With heavy electricity load shedding in Punjab, energy costs in 4Q are likely to remain high as the industries rely on expensive fuel. Furthermore, the gas cess imposed on captive power plants in the budget and rising electricity charges are likely to add to the woes of the textile industry in our view. However, going forward the textile industry can take some respite from the recently announced free access to the EU market, which is likely to benefit the country to the tune of EUR300mn. We remain ‘Market-weight’ on the textile sector with a ‘Hold’ call on NML and NCL.

 

Soaring energy costs a concern  

During 9MFY12 Nishat Mills Limited (NML) and Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL) have seen an increase of 2.4x YoY in their fuel and power cost. This was primarily due to reliance on expensive furnace oil amid heavy gas and electricity shortages in Punjab . Furthermore, rising electricity tariffs added to the misery of the textile industry. We believe such a trend to continue for 4Q as well and keep margins under check.

 

 

In addition, news paper reports have sighted a decline of 9.8% in exports of value added products during the last four months which is likely to keep revenues subdued as well.

 

Cotton prices also keeping low

Bumper cotton crop during FY12 has seen cotton prices being restricted to below Rs6,000 per maund in the domestic market. During 4QFY12 so far, cotton prices have averaged at Rs5,807 per maund compared to Rs6,027 in 1HFY12 (the procurement period). Internationally, the prices have come down to 83.05 cents per lbs from hitting a year high of 122.75 cents in 1HFY12.

 

 

EU trade concessions to ease off woes  

As per recent news reports, the European Union has approved the trade concession to Pakistan . The package will allow tariff free export of 75 products to EU which is likely to benefit the country to the tune of EUR300mn over the next three years. Furthermore, the European Union has approved a law in order to refocus trade aid to poorest nations. The changes to the law are likely to help Pakistan further, as it can now apply for a more advanced GSP plus status from 2014.

 

Recommendation

We believe the textile sector to remain under pressure in 4QFY12 as margins are likely to remain thin. However, the approval of trade concessions by the EU and a chance to apply for the GSP plus status is likely to bode well going forward. At current levels, we maintain our ‘Market-weight’ stance on the textile sector with a ‘Hold’ call on NML and NCL.

 

bilal.qamar@js.com

92 (21) 111-574-111 (ext. 3099)

Also in focus

Net foreign investment falls

Net foreign investment declined by 61%YoY to US$721mn in 11MFY12. The fall came on the back of energy crises, unclear economic policies and law and order situation. Foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped by 48%YoY to US$756.4 in 11MFY12 while foreign portfolio investment (FPI) registered an outflow of US$35mn in the same period.

Textile: Core business to remain under pressure in 4Q

Oil price drop: +ve for consumers,-ve for OMCs

 

Though a sharp drop in int’l oil prices since April-12 has translated into a much- needed relief to end consumers (prices down 4-10% effective 16th June), we see mixed fortunes for downstream companies.

 

The unwinding of heavy inventory gains realized in 9M appears inevitable, in our view, and will prove to be big drag on 4Q earnings.

 

We now estimate PSO to face inventory losses of PRs2.0-2.5bn with 4Q net losses projected at PRs4-5/sh. APL will be relatively cushioned with inventory losses of PRs3-4/sh and has emerged as our preferred pick.

 

Meanwhile, the downstream players may realize an indirect benefit stemming from reduction in power subsidy and monthly receivables generation.

 

We contend core-earnings trends are still intact (PSO and APL trade at undemanding FY13E P/E of 3.8x and 5.9x respectively), and current stock prices provide attractive entry points.

Oil price drop: +ve for consumers,-ve for OMCs

Karachi Stock Exchange launches a free-float capitalization based KSE-100

Event

 

·         The board of directors of Karachi Stock Exchange has approved a new KSE-100 Index based on a free float capitalization method.

 

Impact

 

·         New index to represent a stock’s liquidity/investability.  Under the new methodology, only free-float market capitalization will be considered for calculating the index as against the full market capitalization in case of the existing KSE-100 Index. Free-float is that percentage of total shares issued by the company, which is actually available for trading in the market. Hence, non-tradable shares i.e. cross-holdings, government-owned shares, sponsor holdings, private holdings and shares held in physical form will be deducted from market capitalization in order to represent the true investability of a stock. The above should also prevent index manipulation through excessive price run ups in illiquid/closely held stocks.

·         Two indices to run in parallel for the next three months. The two indices i.e. current full capitalization KSE 100 index and free-float based new index  will run in parallel for next 90 days for comparison purposes and for any adjustments, rebalancing that might be required by Investors. Thereafter at the time of next scheduled re-composition (October 1, 2012) of the index, KSE 100 (Free Float) shall replace KSE full-capitalization 100 index. KSE also said that rules for composition and re-composition of new index shall remain unchanged.

·         We expect limited rebalancing by foreign investors. Major foreign investors in Pakistan have concentrated positions in large cap stocks such as OGDC, PPL and MCB based on a bottom-up analysis. We do not expect them to rebalance their portfolios to reflect the new index.     

 

Change in top stocks' weights in existing and free-float based KSE-100 Index*
Name	Symbol	Weight in existing KSE-100 Index	Weight in free-float based KSE-100 Index
Oil and Gas Development Corporation	OGDC	21.98%	13.47%
Pakistan Petroleum	PPL	7.42%	6.37%
Nestle Pakistan	NESTLE	6.23%	1.29%
MCB Bank	MCB	5.00%	8.07%
Fauji Fertilizer	FFC	4.77%	10.65%
Habib Bank	HBL	4.17%	1.68%
United Bank	UBL	2.88%	2.98%
Pakistan Oil Fields	POL	2.70%	5.09%
National Bank	NBP	2.61%	2.42%
Unilever	ULEVER	2.30%	2.05%
Allied Bank	ABL	1.86%	0.69%
Engro Corp	ENGRO	1.62%	3.01%
Fatima Fertilizer	FATIMA	1.45%	0.91%
PTCL	PTC	1.45%	0.93%
Hub Power Company	HUBC	1.37%	4.35%
PSO	HUBC	1.32%	2.47%
*based on March 28, 2012 prices

Karachi Stock Exchange launches a free-float capitalization based KSE-100

HUBC: The Narowal Tariff is finally here!

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) recently finalized the much awaited tariff pertaining to Hub Power’s Narowal plant. Upward revision in key variables is below management expectation. Key feature of interest for investors is the increase in ROE component of tariff to PkR0.53998 per KWH from previously determined PkR0.4348 per KWH. At the same time, net capacity has been assessed at 213.6MW compared to 213.82MW assessed post initial test. The Return on Equity during construction (ROEDC) has been computed at PkR0.1106 per KWH (previously: 0.0437), where based on actual equity injections, exchange rate variations and construction period from May 15’08 to Mar 31’10, ROEDC works out to US$15.91mn (PkR1.3bn) compared to original determination of US$8.02mn (HUBC request: US$40mn). Our estimates point towards an incremental EPS impact of PkR1.05 based on the new Narowal tariff. Currently, we are in the process of revising our estimates for HUBC and will update investors shortly.                      .

 

Tariff Revision – What’s changed? Post commencement in Apr’11, HUBC applied for adjustment to its reference tariff, for which the determination has finally been authorized by NEPRA. Following are the major details and the changes in the reference tariff: (see table inside attachment)

 

Investment Perspective: The announcement of Narowal tariff has cleared a major uncertainty regarding future cash flows for the project. The incremental PkR1.2bn in ROE (EPS PkR1.05) will somewhat offset the PkR1.6bn cash flow hit the company will take owing to the settlement of the much discussed WHT dispute. Over the past month, the scrip has outperformed the broader market by 9.8% on the back of a likely proxy war in the upcoming BoD elections to be held in Sep’12. This follows the exit of National Power International Holdings BV with Dawood Group and ABL coming to the fore. Currently, we are in the process of updating our financial model for HUBC and will update investors shortly.

HUBC: The Narowal Tariff is finally here!